June 28, 2012; Newark, NJ, USA; Anthony Davis (Kentucky), right, is introduced as the number one overall pick to the New Orleans Hornets by NBA commissioner David Stern during the 2012 NBA Draft at the Prudential Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

NBA Draft 2013: NBA Draft Lottery Odds

 

It’s that time of the year again, when 14 NBA teams’ offseason plans begin with the drop of one ping-pong ball.  The 2013 Draft Lottery is set for Tuesday evening at 8:30 PM EST(7:30 CST) on ESPN.

The Orlando Magic have the highest chance of winning the number one pick, at 25 percent, but history has shown that the team with the highest chance of getting the first pick, might not even end up with a top 3 pick.

Ironically, the last time the team with the worst record (and best chance of winning) who won the lottery was the Magic in 2004, and selected Dwight Howard.

This year’s draft field may be one of the weakest in several years.  Kentucky big man Nerlens Noel has been universally considered as the number one selection, even though he has been recovering from an ACL injury.  Kansas guard Ben McLemore, Georgetown forward Otto Porter, Victor Oladipo of Indiana, and Michigan guard Trey Burke are all also atop the draft class.

Each of the 14 lottery teams will be assigned four-number combinations based on their record with 1,000 possible. Teams with the most likely odds to win the first overall pick will have more potential combinations assigned to that pick. For example, the Magic and their 25 percent shot at winning will own 250 of the lottery combinations for the first pick.

The first through third picks will be selected by the lottery system, and the remaining 11 lottery teams will follow in order of their records and any previously-decided tiebreakers.

Team (record) Number of combinations Percent
Orlando (20-62) 250 25
Charlotte (21-61) 199 19.9
Cleveland (24-58) 156 15.6
Phoenix (25-57) 119 11.9
New Orleans (27-55) 88 8.8
Sacramento (28-54) 63 6.3
Detroit (29-53) 36 3.6
Washington (29-53) 35 3.5
Minnesota (31-51) 17 1.7
Portland (33-49) 11 1.1
Philadelphia (34-48) 8 0.8
Toronto (34-48) 7 0.7
Mavericks (41-41) 6 0.6
Utah (43-39) 5 0.5

 

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