Kevin McHale on Rockets analytics: “Numbers don’t win games”

Do the Houston Rockets’ brainpower rely too much on advanced analytics? Former Rockets coach Kevin McHale says yes.

It’s well known that the Houston Rockets rely on advanced analytics, which is predicated on taking the most efficient shots. This has meant taking the mid-range shot out of the offensive gameplan entirely, and shooting an exorbitant amount of 3-pointers, particularly corner threes.

The corner three is 22 feet in distance, which is the shortest 3-point shot on the floor, as the others are 23 feet and nine inches. The Rockets signed P.J. Tucker prior to the 2017-18 season, and it makes perfect sense why they coveted him: he’s the best corner 3-point shooter in the league.

Tucker being behind the corner has made for a great safety net for James Harden and Russell Westbrook this season, and it’s easy to understand why. The Beard and the Brodie are both adept at getting to the basket, so it’s not uncommon for them to reel in a second defender, which generally means Tucker is wide open in the corner.

But aside from shooting out of the corner, the Rockets shoot a frenetic amount of treys all over the court. Year after year the Rockets fire away from long range at a historic pace. This approach is consistent with the efficiency and analytical formula, as it allows them to theoretically score more points on fewer shots.

But is this the best approach?

Next: McHale speaks

Kevin McHale shares thoughts

Former Rockets coach Kevin McHale says no to the the previous question, citing that numbers simply don’t win games. McHale joined The Usual Suspects on ESPN 97.5’s The Game and had the below to say.

“You guys are caught up a little bit in Houston on numbers. Numbers do not win games. The one number that wins the game is if you have one more point than the other team. That’s the biggest number. But numbers don’t win games. It’s all about teamwork, playing together, knowing who the hot man is, reading situations, shot selection, getting to the line at the end of the game, having plays that aren’t 3-pointers at the end of the game; plays that are driving and getting fouled. All those things come into play.”

That’s alot to unpack, and these are interesting comments coming from McHale, who coached this group for a little more than four seasons, before ultimately getting axed shortly after the 2015-16 season started. In this interview, McHale made sure to say that he enjoyed his time in Houston and certainly wasn’t bashing the Houston Rockets, but he makes some good points, especially as it pertains to end of game execution.

McHale emphasized the importance of having plays that don’t result in threes being taken down the stretch, and instead are designed at getting to the cup and/or result in getting to the free throw line. McHale also used Kawhi Leonard and the Toronto Raptors’ championship run as proof that shooting 3-pointers isn’t necessarily needed to win a championship.

McHale added, “Look at how Kawhi Leonard won the championship with Toronto last year. 15 and 18 footers, getting fouled, and posting up. He didn’t just shoot 3’s.”

Next: Kawhi not the best comparison

Kawhi not the best comparison

As it pertains to the mid-range, Kawhi is an interesting comparison, because he attempted 4.9 mid-range shots per game during the 2019 playoffs, compared to six triples per game. So in essence, he attempted more triples than the mid-range shots, which sort of debunks McHale’s comparison.

Granted, Kawhi shot 33.3 percent during the Eastern Conference semifinals and 34.4 percent from distance during the Eastern Conference finals, so he didn’t exactly light it up from long-range throughout the entire playoffs. And Kawhi did shoot 49.2 percent from mid-range during the 2019 postseason, but he actually fared much better on the corner 3-point shot, as he made 55.6 percent from the left corner and 50 percent from the right corner.

His six triples per contest during the postseason represented a career high for Leonard in both the playoffs and the regular season. Kawhi shot even more triples during the NBA Finals series against the Warriors, as he shot seven triples per game, and made 35.7 percent of them, which was actually better than Stephen Curry, by comparison. Considering how much Kawhi depended on the 3-point shot, he’s not exactly the best example of how 3-pointers aren’t necessary to win a title.

When McHale mentioned late game execution, it’s possible he’s referring to the series-ending shot Kawhi nailed against the Philadelphia 76ers, which was the epitome of a shot the Rockets wouldn’t want, by design. Kawhi was just a step inside the 3-point line, which is something that would be frowned upon under Daryl Morey and Mike D’Antoni. Morey actually had interesting comments about the shot, stating that it was a 10 percent shot and that it was essentially a miss.

The biggest frustration with the Rockets’ style of play is that it’s only effective if the Rockets are making a large percentage of their attempts from long-range, which hasn’t necessarily been the case this season. For this reason, many fans have been calling for the Houston Rockets to sprinkle in some of the mid-range shots that James Harden used to be lethal at shooting.

McHale is essentially saying the Rockets need to do just that, and forget about the high percentage shots and/or most efficient shots. Although Kawhi wasn’t exactly the best comparison, there’s one thing McHale is certainly right about: the only number that matters is the score at the end of the game.