Rockets: How the Tom Thibodeau rumors show game of poker

With rumors swirling that the Houston Rockets have their sights set on Tom Thibodeau, there’s a greater effect that this report has that isn’t being discussed.

With the NBA currently on a league-mandated suspension, basketball fans everywhere have been starving to get their fix. This has resulted in astronomical ratings for ESPN’s docu-series The Last Dance, and all of the chatter as it pertains to the hardwood has been about the Michael Jordan-led Chicago Bulls teams of the 1990s. Debates and arguments have sparked regarding whether the Houston Rockets would’ve won their two championships if Jordan hadn’t retired, and the annual Jordan vs. LeBron James debate has gotten re-visited ad nauseam.

Part of the reason for this is simply because we’ve not had anything else to talk about, and it’s unclear when the league will return to action, if at all. Although the NBA’s hiatus has forced us all into a lull period of inactivity, the Houston Rockets’ world became much more interesting on Monday, as reports circulated that sent shock waves through many in the basketball world.

Marc Berman of the New York Post reported that the Rockets were interested in pursuing Tom Thibodeau, which is a move that many should’ve seen coming months ago. In fact, we discussed the possibility of the Rockets pursuing Tom Thibodeau when the Rockets were just 26 games into the season, as the reasons were obvious.

The Houston Rockets’ primary weakness is a major strength for Thibodeau, so it would at least make sense from that standpoint to add Thibs, if possible. But the Thibodeau situation represents a much bigger end game for each party involved, including the Rockets, Thibodeau, and his agent.

Next: Business side of agent dealings

Exploring the business side of things

If you know anything about the business side of sports then you know the extent of which agents try to alter outcomes and best position their clients. This is especially the case in free agency, as players/coaches have all of the leverage, and they can choose to go wherever they desire to land. This is much different than how trades are facilitated, as those require teams to agree to terms on a deal because the player/coach is technically under contract, meaning the teams have all the negotiating power.

This was evident during the Paul George sweepstakes in 2017, as PG-13 made it known that he planned to leave the Indiana Pacers, and it was reported that he wanted to go to the Los Angeles Lakers. The Pacers obviously wanted to do what was best for them and get the best possible package in return, which resulted in a trade with the Oklahoma City Thunder that landed them Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis.

The Lakers were also on the wrong end of trade negotiations during their pursuit of Anthony Davis during the 2018-19 season, in which the New Orleans Pelicans left them hanging at the altar. This had an enormous effect on the Lake Show, as many of their top players were younger players who didn’t necessarily know how to handle the rumors and speculation of being on the trade block.

Free agency is much different, as agents stand to gain from leaking reports that their client is being courted by as many teams as possible, because it creates a scenario/situation that forces a team’s hand if they feel they aren’t the top choice for said player or coach.  In Thibodeau’s case, he’s considered the belle of the ball and potentially the top candidate on the coaching market, so it would be a smart tactic for the agent to “create a market” for his client, by stating a list of teams that may be interested, to get the top teams to compete for Thibs.

Next: Creating a market

Effect of creating a market

As Marc Berman reported, Thibodeau is being pursued by the New York Knicks and the Brooklyn Nets, then followed by the Houston Rockets. So Thibs’ agent has every incentive to drive up the urgency on the Knicks/Nets’ behalf by making them believe they’ll lose out on his services because the Rockets are right behind them in the pursuit of the former Coach of the Year.

This will also drive up the asking price of Thibodeau and if the strategy is successful, it’ll get either team to bite and pay Thibodeau more money than they may have initially planned. If this were to result in a bidding war, it’s safe to say the Knicks would be the most likely to pay him the most money, because they have the most desperation and stand to lose the most if he doesn’t end up being their coach.

The Knicks have suffered monumental losses in free agency, as they were believed to have been the favorites to land Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving just 11 months ago, only to see them both travel across the way to the Brooklyn Nets. This only added to the Knicks’ reputation of being the laughing stock of the NBA, and what we’ve heard about their new front office is that they want to put an end to their laughable standing in league circles.

It would be a power move for the Knicks to get Thibodeau, so the Rockets would have to climb the financial ladder to outbid the Knicks, who have deep pockets as a major market team. From the Rockets’ standpoint, there’s no reason to be this desperate, as they’ve already got a playoff roster in a much tougher conference, not to mention already having an MVP duo in the backcourt, with Russell Westbrook and James Harden.

Next: Effect on MDA

Effect on Mike D’Antoni

It’s important to note that the Houston Rockets have also not reached an extension with current coach Mike D’Antoni and with Thibodeau being of the hottest names on the market, the Rockets stand to benefit from it leaking that they’re interesting in Thibs. This could simply help them gain leverage in their talks with D’Antoni, who would surely prefer to stay in Houston if he has the opportunity.

Creating a perception that the Rockets are prepared to move on from D’Antoni could potentially help to get D’Antoni’s representation to abide by the Rockets’ terms, which is important because both sides weren’t able to come to terms on an extension last offseason, despite the Rockets’ attempts. We also shouldn’t forget the level of affinity Rockets general manager Daryl Morey publicly expressed not even a full two months ago on The Lowe Post podcast with ESPN’s Zach Lowe.

The discussion took place during the MIT Sloan Analytics Conference, which took place between March 6-7 of this year, and the Rockets only played two games after the conference ended. So what would have happened to have changed Morey’s mind during those two games? And if the Rockets couldn’t get MDA to agree to their number, they surely won’t be able to get Thibodeau without engaging in a bidding war, since he’s the top candidate on the market.

The reality is the Rockets’ brass could possibly be trying to gain leverage in their contract talks with MDA and are potentially going to rest their heads on the premise that D’Antoni doesn’t want a repeat of the 2019 offseason.  Does MDA want to go down yet another potentially ugly road like last year, in which the terms of the contract negotiations were leaked publicly? Does he want to go through another back and forth between his side and the Rockets?

It’s also important to consider the effect the hiatus plays in all of this, as the Rockets had just 14 games to test the small ball experiment with Robert Covington in the lineup. Regardless of what happens in the postseason, D’Antoni will certainly want another opportunity to see if his custom-built philosophy will work for the long-haul with Russell Westbrook, because this would still have been a small sample size, even with a full postseason.

The timing of this could be viewed as unfortunate, which would be understandable considering how the possibility exists that the NBA league office could decide to resume the year with playoffs starting as is. But on the flip side, it could be viewed as a gift if it lands a long-term extension between the Rockets and D’Antoni.