Would the Rockets have fared better in the playoffs with Clint Capela?

The Houston Rockets did not get the ending they were hoping for to the 2019-20 season, but would having Clint Capela in place of Robert Covington have produced better results?

When the Houston Rockets made the decision back in February to effectively trade Clint Capela for Robert Covington, their entire team identity revolved around their commitment to small-ball. This caused many in the national media sphere to dismiss them as contenders, while others viewed them as a legitimate threat in the West.

It’s pretty clear that they were not legitimate contenders this season, based on how they fared in the playoffs. The Rockets struggled to get past the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference Quarterfinals, as the Thunder extended the series to seven games.

After getting past OKC, the Rockets drew a matchup against the top-seeded Los Angeles Lakers, who were winless against the Rockets’ small ball approach during the regular season. But the Rockets put up a disappointing fight against the Lakers and were defeated within five games of the Western Conference Semifinals.

But is the Clint Capela trade the reason for this unfortunate outcome? To find the answer, let’s start with the chief concern that came with the trade: rebounding.

Next: Rebounding woes

Rockets’ rebounding woes

It stands to reason that trading your only playable center for a wing would hurt your team’s rebounding. That is without mentioning that Capela is indeed a good rebounding center.

In the regular season, the Rockets were 15th in rebounding before the All-Star break, and 20th afterwards. Clint Capela was traded in early February, shortly before the break, so this prediction did come to fruition.

This trend also translated to the playoffs, where the Rockets finished 13th in rebounding by the time they were eliminated by the Lakers.

What is interesting is that their first-round opponent, the Oklahoma City Thunder, finished first in rebounding for the postseason. As we know, the Rockets managed to defeat the Thunder with Russell Westbrook missing a good amount of the series, even if they barely did so.

Against the Lakers, however, three of the four losses saw rebounding discrepancies of 13 or higher, with Game 4 seeing the Lakers grab 26 more boards than Houston. Against the Thunder, the Rockets were never outrebounded by more than 12 in a loss, and were only outrebounded by six in one of those three losses.

The explanation as to why the Rockets saw a much more tangible effect on the outcome in the series against the Lakers as compared with the Thunder is simple: The Lakers are a much bigger team than the Thunder.

Against a team of more reasonable proportions, small-ball worked in spite of the Rockets getting outrebounded because they were not outrebounded by that much. But against a team as tall as the Lakers, the rebounding concerns of small-ball came to light.

There is still a catch to this, however. Clint Capela is only one player and the Lakers have several players who can match his size and rebounding production, so is it really plausible to think that his presence alone would have helped enough on the boards to change the outcome of the series?

The answer is no. If Capela is there, that means Robert Covington is not there. Covington is the second tallest player who actually played in the playoffs for the Rockets, and the difference that the Rockets had on the glass with him versus what they would have theoretically had with Capela is not enough to sufficiently declare a different potential outcome for the series.

The Rockets would likely have faced similar rebounding troubles even with Capela. In essence, rebounding played a role, but would not have looked different enough to change the end result.

Next: Covington's impact

Robert Covington’s productivity in the playoffs

Statistically, Robert Covington was quite good in this season’s playoff run. Covington averaged 11.2 points on 49.5 percent from the field and 50 percent from beyond the arc.

As we expected, he was great defensively as well. He may have struggled with Chris Paul at times in the first round, but for the majority of the time he was one of the best defenders on the team, averaging 2.5 steals and 1.1 blocks.

Like any player, Covington had a few duds in his playoff run, but for the most part, he was a great contributor in the postseason.

While Capela may have helped on the boards more than Covington did, both matchups the Rockets had would not have been advantageous to Capela’s game. There are a few reasons to suspect Capela’s impact would have been lower than Covington’s was.

Firstly, if you think RoCo was struggling with Chris Paul, imagine someone who is larger and slower than him getting switched onto CP3. With a player as cerebral as Paul is, Capela would have been hunted for switches consistently throughout the series.

Assuming the Houston Rockets would have still made it out of the first round with Capela, the Lakers would also have provided massive challenges for him. Having to protect the paint from a driving force such as LeBron James while defending Anthony Davis at the same time is something that Clint was simply not likely to do well.

On the other end of the floor, Capela struggles with bigs who are stronger and bigger than he is. AD or even someone like Javale McGee, who we have seen outperform Capela before, would have made it quite difficult for a center who cannot create his own shot to score.

That goes without mentioning former Houston Rockets center Dwight Howard, who basically could not even play in this series due to the Rockets style of play. In a scenario where Capela is in Houston instead of Covington, that makes for three big men who could effectively defend Capela and battle him for rebounds on the other end of the floor.

Clint Capela is also obviously not a 3-point shooter, which is one of the most significant aspects of the Rockets’ game. Especially with Eric Gordon’s shooting in the first round, having a lineup where Russ, Gordon, and Capela are on the floor would have considerably limited Houston’s scoring punch.

It is hard to argue Capela would have been a stylistic improvement over Covington in the playoffs, and there is no guarantee he would have produced as much as RoCo statistically either.

Next: Westbrook's struggles

How Russell Westbrook’s game would have suffered

Russell Westbrook did not play up to expectations throughout the playoffs. There were several moments in both of the Rockets’ matchups where Russ was struggling to drive to the paint without a big man clogging it up. With a more traditional center like Capela in the middle, Westbrook’s already limited impact would have been even more restricted.

Russ and Capela never quite found the same alley-oop chemistry that James Harden found with Clint. Without the ability to facilitate Capela’s game above the rim, that would have left Russ with one fewer option as he struggled to get inside.

In a playoff run where Westbrook often put out high volumes of turnovers, the Rockets could not have afforded to take one more option away from him.

Part of Russ’ effectiveness in Houston also came from his transition game due to his incredible speed and acceleration. He is considered one of the best transition players in the NBA, and Clint Capela was never quite quick enough to be utilized well in fast breaks led by Westbrook.

While Robert Covington is not exactly the fastest player in the league, his fantastic 3-point shooting throughout the postseason gave Russ one more option the many times he found himself in a bind while driving. Covington’s decent ability to drive to the basket also gave the Rockets one more guy who could penetrate and score or kick out.

Though trading Capela took one more offensive option away from Harden, the Beard’s bag is far more vast than Westbrook’s. If Russ cannot explode to the rim or is cold on his mid-range jumper, he is likely not scoring very much. A 6’10 center clogging up the paint would have left him relying far too much on his middie.

As unfortunate as it may have been, trading Capela and going small was the only way the Rockets were going to get the most out of Russ. It is no coincidence that Westbrook started playing arguably the best basketball of his career not long after Capela left and Covington arrived.

With Russ as the Robin to Harden’s Batman, the Rockets could not have afforded to limit Westbrook anymore than he already limited himself in the playoffs.

Next: The impact of small ball

Impact of Rockets’ microball in postseason

It is undeniable that small-ball played a role in Houston’s postseason result, as the series with the Lakers most clearly demonstrates. The lack of rebounding and post presence allowed the Lakers to take care of the Rockets rather easily.

However, the Rockets were already playing small even with Clint Capela on the team. What he could have contributed in rebounding does not match what he would have taken away in 3-point shooting and facilitation of Westbrook’s game.

It is debatable whether or not Capela would have even been a more productive player on either side of the floor than Robert Covington from a statistical perspective, and it is quite the uphill battle to claim that the Rockets’ system would have seen anything but even worse play from Russell Westbrook.

But even if you somehow believe that Capela would have been better than Covington for this team’s playoff performance, there is not enough evidence to reasonably assert that it would have been enough to change the outcome of this year’s postseason.

The Rockets just barely eeked past the Thunder and were handled comfortably by the Lakers. Even assuming he is better at all, Clint Capela is not a large enough improvement over Robert Covington, statistically or stylistically, to have made any kind of substantial difference in that result.