Houston Rockets: Why Christian Wood should be in the MVP conversation

The Houston Rockets are in free-fall after losing their sixth consecutive game to the 8-17 Washington Wizards. Before the losing streak the Rockets were 11-10 and firmly in the playoff picture but, like the family photo in Back to the Future, the Rockets playoff picture is fast fading.

There has been a myriad of factors that have added to the Rockets’ inability to outscore their opponents but the single greatest reason has been the injury absence of Christian Wood. No team can easily weather the loss of their best player but the drop-off in performance by the Rockets show just how valuable Wood is.

The MVP race

The NBA MVP race begins months before the season even begins. Before a game was even played this season, Luka Doncic already had MVP buzz and it was deemed his award to lose. Not even halfway through the season and Doncic’s name is nowhere to be found in MVP conversations.

In his stead, Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic, and LeBron James are the early front runners as their two teams near the top of the standings. The perpetual year-long MVP conversation is a silly exercise, not because it has no merits, but because of how the vote usually shakes out.

Since the 2008-09 season, nine out of the twelve MVP winners have been on the team that finished with the league’s best record and this is a continuation of a long-standing trend. The three players that rose above their team’s record over the past 12 seasons were Russell Westbrook when he averaged a triple-double over an entire season for the first time since Oscar Robertson did in 1962, Kevin Durant when his team finished with the second-best record and he averaged 32 points and LeBron James in the lockout-shortened season.

Arguing over who will be the MVP before the season ends is a fruitless exercise because, at the end of the day, the standings usually dictate the winner. The award shouldn’t be called the Most Valuable Player but, rather, the Best Player on the Best Team award.

What does Most Valuable mean?

When it comes to value there are many ways you can slice it. Is it simply the best player in the league? Is it the player with the best ratio of salary to production? Or, is it the player that their team simply cannot do without? If it is the player that is simply the most indispensable to their team’s chances, then Christian Wood needs to join the MVP conversation.

Next: How Christian Wood is indispensable

Houston Rockets: Chrisitan Wood is indispensable

It wasn’t too long ago that the Rockets were riding a six-game winning streak that saw them shoot up the standings but like a pendulum, they’ve swung in the opposite direction. At the center of both of those streaks has been Rockets’ center, Christian Wood.

The Houston Rockets have been two different teams with and without Wood. In the 17 games that he has played this season, the Rockets have averaged 111.2 points per game and allowed only 108.9 points.

When he has been out, the Rockets have scored 108.5 points per game and allowed 110 per contest to their opponents. A team with an average point differential of +2.3, like the Rockets with Wood, would be expected to win 57-percent of their games, while a team with a -1.5 point differential would be expected to win 45-percent of their contests.

It’s easy to see why the Rockets struggle when Wood is out of the lineup, his offensive rating per 100 possessions is 116 and his defensive rating is 104. The Rockets’ offensive and defensive ratings of 109.1 and 106.8 before his ankle injury were in large part owed to Wood and had them looking like a playoff team.

In the ensuing six games since Wood’s injury, all losses, the Rockets were able to drag their offensive and defensive ratings, for the entire season, down to 107.7 on offense and up to 109.5 on defense. The total implosion on both ends of the court further highlights how dependent the Rockets are on Wood.

The Rockets with Christian Wood are a playoff team and without him, they are destined for the lottery. If that doesn’t scream valuable, I’m not sure what does? Well, Christian Wood’s actual stats do.

Next: Christian Wood is keeping MVP company

Houston Rockets: How Christian Wood’s stats stack up

The traditional box score stats say that Christian Wood is an All-Star, but do they scream MVP? Let’s take a look at Wood’s traditional statistics and their per 36-minute counterpart to see how he’s doing.

                          PTS     REB    BLK    AST    STL

Per Game:      22      10.2    1.5      1.3     0.9

Per 36 Min:   25.4   11.8    1.8     1.5     1.1

The biggest impediment to Wood’s MVP campaign has been the Rockets’ inability to play him enough minutes each and every night. If Wood were playing 36 minutes a night he’d be the toast of the NBA and be one of four players to average over 25 points and 10 rebounds a game along with Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, and Giannis Antetokounmpo.

If your numbers have you in the same conversation as two of the current MVP favorites and the two-time reigning MVP then you probably deserve to be in the conversation for MVP as well. Wood isn’t just posting these numbers by virtue of raw volume, he has been the most efficient shooter of the four this season.

                   2PT%       3PT%      eFG%      FGA

Embiid:     57.3%      40%       57.7%     17.3

Jokic:         61.1%      38.1%   60.3%     18.2

Giannis:   64.1%      28.2%   59.3%     18.3

Wood:      61.3%      42.1%   61.8%     15.7

When it comes to putting the ball in the bucket, Wood has been elite this season and the Rockets would be wise to get him a few more touches a game. If the Rockets had the record of the Philadelphia 76ers (18-10) or even the Denver Nuggets (15-11) Wood’s name would have to be firmly in the MVP conversation.

The biggest obstacle to Wood’s MVP candidacy has been his own team. Whether it’s the win-loss record or the number of minutes and touches, the Rockets have done just about everything in their power to obscure their best player’s talents.

Next: Is Christian Wood's MVP claim real?

Houston Rockets: How real is Christian Wood’s claim to MVP?

As discussed before, the MVP award is as much a team award as it is an individual one. Unfortunately, Wood’s team has let him down and outside of an epic turnaround, he doesn’t have much of a chance of garnering MVP buzz.

That doesn’t mean he isn’t deserving of MVP consideration. It isn’t his fault that MVP voters are essentially bad at their job, just like it isn’t his fault that his teammates are as well. Christian Wood deserves to be in the conversation because he has earned.

When he is on the court his team is substantially better. When he sits or misses an entire game his team falls apart. Wood’s value is that he makes a bad team a playoff team, which is a feat unto itself.

His statistics are equal to those that have won MVPs and are considered to be favorites for the award this season. When it’s all said and done, Christian Wood is an MVP candidate.

At the end of the season, if the Rockets are in the playoffs they’ll have Christian Wood to thank. He has been their best player and a stabilizing force in one of the most tumultuous seasons in the history of the franchise.

Sometimes it takes not having something to fully appreciate how important it is. Chrisitan Wood’s ankle injury and the Rockets’ complete collapse show just how valuable he is.

When LeBron left the Cavaliers and joined the Miami Heat the Cavaliers went from winning 61 games to 19. Christian Wood might not be that impactful, but this six-game losing streak shows that he’s not that far off.