Houston Rockets: The Rockets’ 5-step rebuild plan to contention

The Houston Rockets haven’t come out and said they’re in a rebuild but all the evidence points towards a team that is well on its way to tearing everything down and building from the bottom up. The Rockets’ stealth rebuild began as soon as the team was eliminated from the playoffs by the Los Angeles Lakers.

The first pillar that fell was Mike D’Antoni not signing an extension to stay on as the Rockets’ head coach. It’s unknown if this was a mutual parting but when a playoff team doesn’t extend their head coach that’s never a good sign and it’s made even worse when that coach signs on to an assistant coach somewhere else.

The next step for the Rockets was when Daryl Morey decided to walk away after 13 years at the helm of the franchise only to sign on to run the Philadelphia 76ers. In many ways, Morey and D’Antoni’s decisions to walk away from the Rockets only to immediately go to another franchise signals that they might have seen the writing on the wall.

The Houston Rockets rebuild was always coming

With the two architects of the Rockets’ most successful teams since the mid-1990s, the franchise started their rebuild in earnest. They moved Robert Covington and Russell Westbrook in the offseason for picks and signed an unknown young player named Christian Wood to a three-year deal.

Then, after the season had gotten underway, they traded away one of the world’s best players, James Harden, for a massive return of draft picks and Victor Oladipo, who is on an expiring contract. Every move the Rockets have made since the playoffs have been to tear down the team that made the playoffs eight consecutive seasons and acquire players and assets for the future.

The Rockets rebuild is underway and should only accelerate in the coming months and years. No fanbase likes to watch their team burn it all down and try to rebuild from the ashes but the Rockets looked prepared to do just that.

The painful years don’t have to last forever and the Rockets are already well on their way. This is the Rockets’ five-step rebuild plan and how it’ll get them back into contention.

Next: Step 1

Houston Rockets rebuild step 1: Tread water until John Wall’s contract expires

One of the most powerful tools franchisees use to accelerate their rebuilds is to weaponize open cap space. The Rockets, if they don’t extend Victor Oladipo, will have $87.2 million in salary commitments next season.

The only thing preventing the Rockets from having the most salary cap space in the league is the presence of John Wall and his $44.3 million contract. At this moment, over half of all of the Rockets’ salary commitments for 2021-22 is headed to John Wall.

The Rockets need to use their cap space to acquire players and assets as a dumping ground for accounting purposes. However, the franchise won’t be able to fully maximize its cap space until Wall’s gargantuan contract comes off the books in the summer of 2023.

Heading into the 2023-24 season the Rockets only have Eric Gordon and Kenyon Martin Jr. under contract and neither of their salaries’ are fully guaranteed. The Rockets shouldn’t head into that offseason with no one under contract but it just shows how much financial might they’ll be able to wield.

The Rockets need to tread water until then and look to find and develop young players. Once Wall is off the books, the Rockets will be serious players in free agency, and depending on where their rebuild is they can use their cap space as they see fit.

Next: Step 2

Houston Rockets rebuild step 2: Determine if Christian Wood is a maximum player

The best move of the offseason was the Rockets signing Christian Wood to a three-year $41 million contract. The only All-Star caliber players that make that little are on rookie contracts, which makes Wood one of the most valuable players in the entire league.

If the Rockets were to make him available for trade the offers they would receive would rival those of NBA superstars. Is Wood as good as Anthony Davis? No, but when the Lakers traded for him he had one year left on his deal and was owed $27 million.

In a salary-cap sport Wood is one of the most valuable commodities in the league. He is young, productive, cheap, and under contract for multiple seasons. Regardless of their place in the standings, the Rockets shouldn’t make Wood available for any reason.

Rebuilding becomes a lot easier when you have an All-Star caliber player already in town and Wood checks that box. What the Rockets need to determine over the next two seasons is if Wood is worth a maximum contract.

If he keeps posting 20 points and 10 rebounds a game on 40-percent 3-point shooting, like he has, the Rockets should extend him as soon as possible. The second step in their rebuild has to be figuring out if Wood is truly a franchise centerpiece, but so far he hasn’t shown anything but that.

Next: Step 3

Houston Rockets rebuild step 3: Keep acquiring first-round picks

The next step to the Rockets’ rebuild is to keep on acquiring first-round picks. The James Harden trade landed the Rockets a ton of picks and pick-swaps but most of the package negated the loss of draft capital they surrendered to land Russell Westbrook.

Draft picks are the unofficial currency of the NBA. Sure, drafting and developing a first-round pick is an option but picks are best used to buy proven NBA players. Draft picks are lottery tickets but James Harden is a sure thing.

The Rockets should be able to add a fair amount to their war chest before the deadline. P.J. Tucker, David Nwaba, and Victor Oladipo are all on expiring deals and should be able to land the franchise at least three first-round picks.

Eric Gordon and Danuel House should be the next Rockets they begin shopping and could be gone as soon as this offseason. To keep the stream of picks coming expect the Rockets to sign veteran players to one-year deals that they can move midseason over the next few seasons.

The Rockets need to keep bringing in picks to either get young cost-controlled talent or to swing those picks for NBA-ready talent. The Rockets, before James Harden arrived, were in a similar position and they used their draft capital to build a winner overnight.

Next: Step 4

Houston Rockets rebuild step 4: Gear up for a big 2023-24

As mentioned earlier, the Rockets are going to have a boatload of cap space in the summer of 2023 and they need to be ready to have a big 2023-24 season. The Rockets will need to re-sign or extend Wood for that season but even after that, they’ll still have plenty of room to go big game hunting.

The summer of 2023 has the potential to be a star-studded free agency class. Kyrie Irving, Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic, Jerami Grant, and Myles Turner could all be available, and depending on who exercises player options so too could Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, Khris Middleton, Jimmy Butler, Kristaps Porzingis, and Fred VanVleet.

It’s unlikely all of these players will be available but if the Rockets are armed with a mountain of draft capital, cap space, and have Christian Wood already in the fold then they could be poised to build their own superteam in one fell swoop.

Even if the Rockets can’t land a superstar they’ll have enough cap space to take on teams’ undesired contracts for draft picks and still go out and land solid veteran players to round out their rotation. There’s a chance that the Rockets could be a title contender in as few as three seasons, it’ll take a little luck but they have all the necessary ingredients to make multiple big moves.

Next: Step 5

Houston Rockets rebuild step 5: Cash in assets for a star

To be a contender in the NBA you need a superstar player. Christian Wood has a chance to become one but having a single superstar usually isn’t enough. The Rockets need to cash all of the assets they’re collecting in for a player that can get them back to the top.

The Rockets can go two routes with their assets to land a superstar. Their first option, use draft picks to find and develop the franchise’s next All-NBA caliber player. The second option for the Rockets is to use those picks to pluck a superstar through trade.

There are merits to both avenues and plenty of current examples of how fruitful each path can be but both have their drawbacks. Using the draft to find a superstar is risky because knowing how a player will develop is an inexact science.

However, trying to find a superstar through the draft gives you the most swings at it and it allows your team to remain financially flexible. The avenue of using draft picks to trade for a superstar makes landing an impact player much easier but it can put your finances in a jumble and if it doesn’t work out your left without a back-up plan.

For the Rockets to complete their rebuild they’ll need to read the tea leaves and be opportunistic. When the Rockets landed James Harden they did just that and they’re poised to do so again.

There will be a few lean years as the Rockets try to rebuild a contender but if they stick to this five-step process they’ll be in a position to get back to contention sooner than expected. The best franchises are never down for long and the Rockets have rebounded quickly from a dire situation.