Houston Rockets: How much P.J. Tucker’s trade value has declined

From the moment the Houston Rockets moved James Harden the franchise looked poised to move on from P.J. Tucker. Outside of Harden, no other player embodied the Rockets of the late 2010s more than Tucker.

His defensive versatility allowed the Rockets to play futuristic small-ball lineups and his reliable stroke from the corners made him the perfect floor spacing partner for Harden. Tucker is now in his fourth and final season of the contract he signed with the Rockets in the summer of 2017, which has made him a likely trade candidate.

If Tucker had been available in the offseason the Rockets could have landed a first-round pick for him and that’s the price they set as the season got underway. However, as the season has gone on, Tucker has remained in Houston with diminishing production and it’s unclear how much trade value he has anymore.

Contenders from all around the league have been rumored to be interested in Tucker but his precipitous drop in production has created an air of uncertainty around a player who was once viewed as one of the league’s most reliable players. If the Rockets want to trade Tucker they’ll have to change their asking price, but the question is by how much?

Next: What was Tucker's trade value?

Houston Rockets: Where P.J. Tucker was before the season

Over Tucker’s first three seasons in Houston, he established a staggering level of consistency. He averaged between 6.1 and 7.3 points per game, 5.6 and 6.6 rebounds, and shot between 35.8-percent and 37.7-percent from 3-point range.

The one thing that did change over this period was Tucker’s position on the court. When he first arrived in Houston he spent the majority of his minutes at the small forward position. Slowly but surely he started getting more minutes at the power forward spot and eventually at center.

For a player listed at 6’5, Tucker’s ability to guard up the defensive spectrum made him an incredibly valuable player, as it allowed the team to construct lineups where Tucker would paper over someone’s weakness. Tucker made his bones on defense and the Rockets responded and gave him a hodgepodge of defensive assignments but on offense, he had one consistent role.

Over his first three seasons in Houston, Tucker took 70.7-percent of his 3-pointers from the corner and hit them at a 39.2-percent clip. As the league has embraced the 3-point shot more, 3-and-D players and stretch-forwards have become crucial to offensive success and Tucker was able to check both of those boxes.

Before the 2020-21 season started Tucker was a valuable veteran that was viewed as the key to unlocking any team’s best lineup. The Rockets were right to view his trade value as being worthy of a first-round pick, even on an expiring contract.

Next: How Tucker's season gone

Houston Rockets: Where P.J. Tucker is now

P.J. Tucker has experienced a drop-off across the board this season. While this is not unusual for a player of his age, 35-years-old, it couldn’t have come at a worse time for the Rockets.

Over Tucker’s first three years in Houston, he played 236 games, averaged 6.8 points and 6 rebounds per game on 36.9-percent 3-point shooting and 40-percent from the field. This season he has seen those numbers drop to 4.4 points and 4.6 rebounds on 31.4-percent 3-point shooting and 36.6-percent shooting from the field.

Tucker’s defense is still solid but it has slipped enough this season that it can no longer be deemed plus and more concerningly his ability to hit corner threes has completely abandoned him. For the season, Tucker has only hit 33.8-percent of his corner 3-pointers, which is well below the mark he established over his first three seasons in Houston.

For a contender looking to upgrade their roster, Tucker doesn’t offer much more than a player that can be found on the buy-out market or in the G-League. However, the difference between Tucker and those players, is that he has a long-established track record as an impact role player.

Next: What's Tucker's trade value now?

Houston Rockets: What’s P.J. Tucker’s value now?

As mentioned before, Tucker’s value through trade, even in the last year of his deal, was close to a first-round pick before the season got underway. While 32 games is a small sample compared to 236 games, teams weigh a player’s recent production most heavily.

It’s unfortunate for the Rockets, but Tucker’s trade value is at best in the range of two second-round picks. Most of the real championship contenders have pushed their future picks in to acquire veteran help already, and giving up their last remaining assets for Tucker would be too high a price.

The Rockets have been open for business for most of the season and the fact that Tucker hasn’t already been moved is telling. There were reports that the franchise had valued Tucker at a first-round pick or three second-round picks, if this season had seen the P.J. Tucker of old there is no question that Tucker would already be on another team’s roster.

The Rockets should move Tucker before the trade deadline on March 25th but they’ll have to readjust their expectations. The going rate for a player performing like Tucker has to be at best two second-round picks and more likely just one.

P.J. Tucker’s trade value has plummeted since the beginning of the season. The Rockets would have been better off moving him before the season started but hindsight is always 20/20.

Tucker earned the affection of Rockets’ fans for a reason and his drop-off in play shouldn’t change any of that. Father time is undefeated and Tucker, at 35-years-old, was bumping up against that decline. The timing is unfortunate for the Rockets, but they enjoyed three fantastic seasons from a truly unique player.