Houston Rockets: How long the Rockets’ rebuild will take

The Houston Rockets rebuild is in full effect but it’s difficult, at the moment, to know when the fruits of their teardown will be realized. The picks coming back from the James Harden trade won’t have much value until years from now and the Rockets still owe the Oklahoma City Thunder first-round picks from the Russell Westbrook trade.

The franchise, outside of John Wall and Eric Gordon, has few significant future salary commitments and they’ll have a steady stream of first-round picks coming in. Aside from Christian Wood, the Rockets don’t have any valuable trade assets and he’s a player who should factor into their future plans.

While the trade returns for P.J. Tucker and Victor Oladipo were disappointing, the Rockets were always going to be in a difficult position this season the moment James Harden demanded a trade. The roster and offense were built around the idea that Harden would be at the center of everything and outside of the best players in the league, there wasn’t much any single player could do to offset his departure.

The most pressing question for the Rockets, and their fanbase, is how long will the rebuild take before the Rockets are a competitive team again? The timeline of the Rockets’ rebuild hinges on where they land in this upcoming draft, which itself hinges on the randomness of the NBA draft lottery.

From the Russell Westbrook trade, the Rockets owe the Oklahoma City Thunder a first-round pick swap if their pick falls outside of the top-four picks. Due to the NBA draft lottery odds, the best chances the Rockets can have to keep their pick is 52-percent, which they currently have.

If their pick lands in the top-four they will keep it and could become competitive again in three or four seasons, but if it falls out of that range, they could be a bottom feeder for the next half-decade. The length of the Rockets’ rebuild will come down to the 52-percent chance that they land a pick in the top-four, here are the two ways it can play out.

Next: The fast rebuild

Houston Rockets rebuild: The 52% chance

The 2021 NBA draft has been hyped for years and the top of the draft is viewed as having multiple franchise-altering players. Landing a top-four pick would give the Rockets a chance at a franchise cornerstone to build around and get the team headed in the right direction.

Almost every NBA draft publication has the top-five prospects as Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, Jalen Green, Jalen Suggs, and Jonathan Kuminga. Each member of the quintet has All-Star or better upside and could become the focal point for all of the Rockets’ future plans.

Cunningham, the consensus number one pick, has the ability to carry an NBA offense from day one and could develop an incredible pick and roll partnership with Christian Wood. His playmaking is viewed as being a plus but he had more turnovers than assists this season at Oklahoma State, so his playmaking might take a while to fully come around.

Mobley is a modern NBA big man that has All-Defensive team potential and could one day have the offense run through him, although that will likely take time. The combination of him with Wood would give the Rockets a modern iteration of the twin towers and could completely change the NBA’s aversion to playing big.

Green is an explosive athlete that will have no problem scoring in the NBA. The rest of his game will need to develop and there is some concern that he’ll be a Zach LaVine type who takes years to fully realize his potential but he has all the tools to be an impact player.

Suggs is the quintessential NBA combo-guard who, depending on how he develops, could orchestrate an offense or be a team’s go-to scorer. Teams tend to crave certainty but Suggs’ future role will be in the eye of the developer, which could be intriguing to the Rockets.

Kuminga is the rawest of the group but his physical ability gives him a sky-high upside. Standing at 6’8 with a 7’0 wingspan Kuminga has the ability to guard one through five and also has the potential to one day be a team’s go-to scorer. He’ll take time to reach his potential but five years after the draft he could end up being the best of the bunch.

If the Rockets can land one of these five players they’d suddenly have an intriguing young-core to build around. Christian Wood is only 25-years-old, Kevin Porter Jr. has flashed in limited action, and Jae’Sean Tate looks poised to have a long NBA career as a defensive ace.

If the Rockets keep their first-round pick they’ll be able to land one of these players and with the Trail Blazers and Milwaukee Bucks first-round picks they could even move up a spot to secure their preferred player. The best part about being really bad is that you can draft the best available player and not worry about who it pushes out of the rotation.

The timeline for the Rockets’ rebuild will be sped up by two to three years if they can keep their 2021 first-round pick. As of right now, the Rockets have a 52-percent chance to keep it, if the coin lands on heads then the Rockets could become competitive in a hurry.

Next: The long rebuild

Houston Rockets rebuild: The 48% chance

The Rockets’ chances of a swift rebuild will be dramatically altered if they can’t keep their 2021 first-round pick. The reason isn’t that the 2022 NBA draft is barren; it just means they won’t be able to pair two blue-chip prospects to form their future core.

Draft prospects don’t always pan out, which is why having multiple top-five picks in short succession will be so important for the Rockets’ future. For every Zion Williamson, there is an Anthony Bennett and the Rockets can’t afford to take their chances on having just one premium draft pick.

The Rockets won’t be left without any first-round picks if they fall out of the top-four, but they’ll have the Miami Heat’s first-round pick, the Trail Blazers’ first-round pick, and the Milwaukee Bucks first-round pick. While that amounts to three total first-round picks, they all will likely land in the 20s.

In this scenario, the Rockets would have a few options to consider. The first option would be to package all of these picks to move up to land a better player. On paper, this is an appealing option, but outside of the first five picks, this draft does not appear to have any impact players.

The next option would be to trade a few of these picks for future picks. A move like this likely won’t net the Rockets much but it could end up landing them a more valuable pick in the distant future.

The final option is for the Rockets to simply make their selections as they come. For a franchise that hasn’t drafted a player in the first-round since 2015, staying the course and selecting as many young players as possible might be the best course of action.

When it comes to the draft, if you don’t have a premium pick having a bunch of bites at the apple is the next best way to find a star. The chances that the Rockets land a star in the 20s are astronomically low, but from time to time a team gets lucky.

If the Rockets can’t land a top-four pick this season then their timeline to contention will be pushed back by two to three seasons. They’ll have to hope their 2022 first-round pick ends up in the top-five and it could take until 2025 for their rebuild to start to fully kick in.

Houston Rockets timeline to contention

The best-case scenario for the Rockets is that they hit a home run in the 2021 draft, land another valuable pick in 2022, and enter the 2023 offseason armed with a ton of cap space and an up and coming core, which puts their chances at being a playoff team at around 2023 or 2024. However, if the Rockets don’t keep their 2021 first-round pick they’ll likely have to wait until 2025 at the earliest when the Brooklyn Nets’ picks value are more clear to really be able to start contending.