Houston Rockets: 3 reasons the Rockets shouldn’t buyout John Wall

The Houston Rockets are in the midst of one of the franchise’s worst seasons. They set a franchise record with 20 consecutive losses and their 12-39 record has them on pace to post their worst winning percentage since 1982-83.

All of this is happening as former-franchise superstar James Harden is lighting up the league for the Brooklyn Nets. The Rockets began the season with a playoff-caliber team and will end it with a real chance at the number one overall pick in the 2021 NBA draft.

When teams endure a season as bad as the Rockets have they usually look to offload key veterans in the hopes of building for a brighter future. In many respects, the Rockets have already started this process with their trades of P.J. Tucker and Victor Oladipo following their plunge down the standings.

What will the Houston Rockets do with John Wall?

Eric Gordon, if it wasn’t for a groin injury, may have also been moved ahead of the trade deadline, and he’ll likely be the subject of trade rumors all offseason. The Rockets are close to clearing out the cupboard of their high-priced veterans as they engage in their most aggressive rebuild in decades.

However, the Rockets still have one highly paid veteran left on their roster in John Wall. Wall’s trade market is essentially non-existent due to the $91.6 million left on his contract and his inability to stay healthy, which leaves the Rockets with two choices.

They can either let Wall play his contract out or buy him out at some point over the next few seasons. While there is some merit to buying him out as soon as possible, these are three reasons the Rockets should keep Wall throughout the duration of his contract and not buy him out.

Next: Reason #3

Reason #3 the Houston Rockets shouldn’t buyout John Wall: The salary floor

The NBA, not only has a salary cap but also has a salary floor. The NBA Players Association, in part, agreed to the terms of the salary cap because of how the salary floor forces teams to spend above a certain threshold each season on player salaries.

The salary cap floor is an effective mechanism to protect player salaries but it has become a double-edged sword for rebuilding teams. Teams that are bottoming out cannot just field a team full of rookie contracts and guys on the league minimum and agents know this.

There is a long history of players getting overpaid by bad teams simply because they have to spend enough to reach the salary floor. John Wall’s contract might be bad, but it’s a bad contract that will shield the Rockets from more bad contracts.

The Rockets, with John Wall in the fold, are projected to have $98.3 million in salary commitments for next season. His $44.3 million single-handedly gets the Rockets halfway to the salary floor.

Sure, the Rockets could buyout Wall and have his salaries count against their cap sheet the next two seasons but that just opens another roster spot that needs to be filled. John Wall might not deserve his contract but he deserves to be on an NBA roster and right now his bad contract shields the Rockets from more poor financial commitments.

Next: Reason #2

Reason #2 the Houston Rockets shouldn’t buyout John Wall: It’s better to be bad now

One way franchises get out of bad contracts is they cut a player using the stretch provision. The player still receives their money but it is spread out over multiple years so the salary cap impact is muted in the short term.

For a player making as much as John Wall, he has a $47.3 million player option in 2022-23, using the stretch provision is a non-starter. $47.3 million stretched over five years is almost $9.5 million a season.

If the Rockets were contenders then maybe they could justify stretching Wall’s contract, but right now it’s better for them to be as bad as possible. Wall’s contract eating up so much of their cap space will allow the Rockets to tank as hard as possible over the next two seasons without having to dip into free agency to reach the salary floor.

While Houston Rockets general manager, Rafael Stone, said the Rockets don’t want to engage in a long-drawn-out rebuild, he also said that that the James Harden trade can’t be judged until 2030. Aside from the public posturing, it appears that the Rockets have no intention of building a competitive roster over the next two seasons.

If the plan is to be bad in the short term then having John Wall play out his deal goes a long way in satisfying those ambitions. Wall is still an NBA quality player that is paid enough to keep them above the salary floor, while also not being good enough to make them a playoff team.

In two seasons, the Rockets will be off of Wall’s deal and will have added multiple lottery picks to their roster. For the Rockets, it’s better to be bad now than later.

Next: Reason #1

Reason #1 the Houston Rockets shouldn’t buyout John Wall: He can still turn it around

There is no chance that John Wall will ever live up to his contract. It’s not his fault, it’s the fault of the Washington Wizards for giving him a contract that far outstripped his actual ability.

Wall is going to make more over these next three seasons than LeBron James. From the moment he signed his super-max extension it was one of the worst contracts in the league, because, while Wall was a very good player, he was never a top-ten player.

All of that being said, there’s a real chance that Wall could turn it around over the next two seasons and provide some real production for the Rockets. If Wall wasn’t on one of the largest contracts in the sport his first season in Houston, coming off an Achilles injury, would be viewed as a positive development.

It has been reported that Wall will need a left knee scope at some point between now and the beginning of next season. With better health, a less grueling schedule, and a full offseason to get adjusted to a new offense there’s a good chance that Wall will have a better season than this one.

Wall’s 20.8 points per game are the second-highest mark of his career and on a per 36-minute basis he’s averaging a career-best of 23.4 points. His assist totals have been lower than usual but it’s hard to post gaudy assist numbers when you play on a bottom-five shooting team in the league.

Will Wall ever be a superstar again? No, but there’s a decent argument that he never was and all the Rockets need is a steady hand in the backcourt over the next two seasons. The Rockets are building for a future without John Wall, but that doesn’t mean he has no place in their present.

Buying out John Wall doesn’t help the Rockets achieve any of their goals. It won’t save them money and it won’t accelerate their rebuild. John Wall might not be a part of the next great Rockets team, but keeping him around might help lay that foundation.