Houston Rockets: Ranking the top-five 2021 NBA draft prospects

For the Houston Rockets, the 2021 NBA draft cannot come soon enough. Their 15-44 record has given them a half-game lead for the worst record in the league and their recent results have been even worse considering they started the season 11-10.

Since the month of February, the Rockets have been the worst team in the NBA. Their 6-35 record is miles worse than the Minnesota Timberwolves 11-30 mark and if they continue playing at that pace they’ll have no problem claiming the worst record in the league for the first time since the 1982-83 season.

The Rockets have all but locked up one of the three worst records in the league which gives them the joint best odds for the number one overall pick and a 52.1-percent chance to land a pick in the top-four. The number 52.1 is of the utmost importance because if the Rockets’ pick falls out of the top-four it loses its protection and the Oklahoma City Thunder have the right to swap the pick.

To make matters worse, the Thunder own the Miami Heat’s first-round pick, which they can swap so the Rockets would likely end up with a pick outside of the lottery. However, the chances are ever so slightly in the Rockets’ favor to keep their first-round pick and have their choice of one of the draft’s top players.

Houston Rockets: The 2021 Draft

The top of the 2021 draft has been hyped for years and for good reason. There are five potential franchise-altering players who could spearhead a Rockets resurgence. If the Rockets keep their pick, regardless of where it falls, any player in the top four has the potential to be an All-Star.

At the top of most draft boards is Cade Cunningham followed by, in no set order, Evan Mobley, Jalen Suggs, Jalen Green, and Jonathan Kuminga. No pick is a sure thing but each prospect in this group has what it takes to be an impact NBA player. Here’s the ranking of the top-five players in the 2021 NBA draft.

Next: Houston Rockets Draft Prospect #5

Houston Rockets Draft Prospect #5: Jalen Suggs

Jalen Suggs had the good fortune to go deeper in the NCAA tournament than any other prospect on this list. Part of that run included an incredible game-winning shot to send his Gonzaga Bulldogs to the NCAA Tournament championship game in a moment that will forever live in the annals of NCAA history.

All of the extra media exposure and that singular clutch shot have elevated Suggs in the hearts and minds of basketball fans everywhere. However, Suggs, by the slightest of margins, is the weakest of the five prospects.

Part of what drags him down is that he is difficult to evaluate as he was on one of the greatest college teams in history and played in a conference with little NBA talent outside of his own teammates. On top of that, Suggs wasn’t asked to shoulder a massive load night in and night out, which won’t be the case from whatever team that drafts him.

What makes Suggs a tantalizing prospect is his combination of athleticism, feel for the game, defensive upside, and competitiveness. His jump shot looks pretty but the results weren’t great in college as he only shot 33.7-percent on threes and 76.1-percent from the free-throw line.

Suggs jump shot won’t hold him back but it is not guaranteed to be an asset either, which will put pressure on his ability to get to and finish at the rim as well as his playmaking. Suggs’ assist numbers were good in college but it’s tough to know how much of that had to do with his teammates and the offensive system.

His playmaking might be a plus long-term but it could take him a while to pair gaudy assist numbers with an acceptable number of turnovers in the NBA.  Suggs talent is undeniable but he needs to improve his left-handed dribble and ability to laterally attack defenders.

His ability to get to the rim and by defenders, right now, is dependent on his overall speed when dribbling with his right hand. He projects as a good defender, but as always, it will take a while for him to reach his potential on that end and his lack of length could limit his defensive versatility.

Suggs’ athleticism and skill are apparent but of all the potential top-5 picks he has the lowest physical package. His raw athleticism is better than Cade Cunningham’s but he is much smaller and not nearly as long. Suggs has all the traits to be an elite player but he could be in for a rough transition to the NBA.

Suggs is in the delicate position where he doesn’t have the highest upside of this quintet and he isn’t the most likely to make an immediate impact. He’s an awesome prospect but if the Rockets land the fourth pick they should probably pass on him in favor of number four.

Next: Houston Rockets Draft Prospect #4

Houston Rockets Draft Prospect #4: Jonathan Kuminga

Jonathan Kuminga skipped college in favor of playing for the G-League Ignite in the program’s maiden season. The results were mixed as incredible volume allowed him to average 15.8 points per game but on 38.7-percent shooting.

The G-League has far better competition than the NCAA and Kuminga won’t turn 20 until October of 2022. Holding your own against professionals when you’re the age of some high school seniors is no small feat.

What is working for Kuminga is that he looks like he was built in an NBA laboratory. He’s long, explosive, and has the type of frame that portends more strength without limiting mobility.

His dribbling is excellent for someone his size and he has the potential to be an impact, defensive player.  In the end, his ceiling will be determined by his jump shot and playmaking development.

His worst-case scenario is a jack of all trades master of none glue guy that makes his team better but doesn’t post eye-popping stats. The upside he possesses is tremendous and he could be a Kawhi Leonard type who focuses on defense early on as they develop their offensive game.

Kuminga is a lottery ticket as he has the physical ability to be the best player in this draft, but the team that drafts him will have to be patient and smart with his development.

Suggs is more of a sure thing, but Kuminga’s raw physical ability and age give him the highest ceiling of any of the top-five prospects. Even if Kuminga is never an above-average jump shooter he still has the ability to be an All-Star level contributor.

Next: Houston Rockets Draft Prospect #3

Houston Rockets Draft Prospect #3: Jalen Green

Jalen Green should be the early favorite for the 2021-22 NBA Rookie of the Year. Green is going to get buckets with ease no matter what team he ends up on and points per game are a great proxy for ROY voting.

His combination of athleticism, body control, and finishing all but guarantees that he’ll be a 20 point scorer at some point in his career. His shooting consistency and ball handling will need to improve but he won’t turn 20 until February of 2022 so that’s to be expected.

Green’s floor is as a high-volume scorer where his efficiency will determine if he’s a top-15 player (like Zach Lavine this year) or merely the guy that gets to score his team’s points (like Zach LaVine before this season). Regardless of how much he actually impacts winning, Green is the surest bet to provide the most entertainment throughout his career.

Green and Kuminga were teammates for the Ignite, but, unlike Kuminga, Green mixed volume with efficiency. In 32 minutes a game, Green averaged 17.9 points per game on 46.1-percent shooting and 36.5-percent 3-point shooting.

If Green posted those numbers playing for Duke people would be giddy about his potential. The fact that he did so against superior competition with a deeper 3-point line should give everyone optimism that his scoring ability is for real.

However, Green’s ceiling will be determined by his growth as a playmaker and his defensive development. As impressive as his scoring was in the G-League, his passing left a lot to be desired.

Green would benefit, early on, playing next to a real facilitator but he’ll need a team that commits to his development as a passer. He has the physical ability to be an able defender but he’ll likely never be a plus on that end.

Green is a sure thing as a scorer and entertainer but everything else will take time and may never come. His scoring ability will get fans excited but unless he can become an adept passer he’ll have a bunch of empty stats.

Next: Houston Rockets Draft Prospect #2

Houston Rockets Draft Prospect #2: Evan Mobley

Evan Mobley led the NCAA in Win Shares his freshman year at USC. While advanced metrics aren’t perfect when evaluating prospects, it needs to be noted that the last three freshmen to lead the NCAA in win shares are Anthony Davis, Kevin Love, and Kevin Durant.

Mobley is the perfect modern big man and has the potential to be the best defensive player in the league. A lack of strength might cause him to struggle against certain bigs but with the way the NBA game has shifted, it’s more important to be able to defend the perimeter than post-ups.

Mobley is a fluid and explosive athlete that possesses a good handle for someone his size and could be a go-to scoring option at his peak. Early on he’ll be awesome in the pick and roll but his offensive upside lies in whether he can create for himself, extend his range out to three and continue to develop as a passer.

He has an incredibly high floor as an impact defender and a lethal pick and roll partner. However, his ceiling is as the best center and two-way player in the league in a similar fashion to Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Mobley has the skill to play next to another big or be the lone frontcourt player. This versatility will benefit any team that selects him as it’ll allow for more creative team building.

Mobley’s chances of reaching his offensive upside will take time if it ever happens but his chances of being at least an above-average NBA regular are almost a certainty. At the end of the day, Mobley might be the best player from this draft but his chances of being an offensive focal point is what drags him down.

Next: Houston Rockets Draft Prospect #1

Houston Rockets Draft Prospect #1: Cade Cunningham

Cade Cunningham is the consensus number one overall prospect and for good reason. In his lone season at Oklahoma State, he led the Big-12 in scoring and flashed impressive playmaking chops all in a 6’9 package.

The NBA is gravitating towards jumbo-sized playmakers, and Cunningham has the potential to be one of the best in the league. His perimeter shooting is lethal and his length will allow him to shoot over smaller defenders with ease.

Cunningham is not a perfect prospect, no one is at 19-years-old, and he needs to improve his dribble to maximize his offensive potential. Until he does it might take him a while to be an efficient offense hub, but from day one he should be fine off-ball.

To fully utilize his impressive shooting ability he’ll need to improve his stepback and sidestep game as length alone won’t be an advantage enough to be unguardable in the pros. At worst he’ll be a lethal third option on one of the league’s best offenses, with real upside to be the focal point of an NBA offense.

It’ll help his development if he’s able to play next to an established guard early on to allow him to ease into the NBA because if he’s asked to carry an offense from day one he might struggle. Cunningham has every chance to be an impact defensive player but he may end up a tweener, although a good one.

His combination of length and athleticism should allow him to cover perimeter players but his lateral quickness will need to improve to be a plus. If he fills out more then he might also be a quality low-post defender.

There is some risk that he fills out but not quite enough so he’s simply an average defender in the post and on the perimeter, but that’s fine for a player with elite offensive upside. Cunningham is likely as good as a 16-year-old Luka Doncic, so he could be one of the best players in the league by year two or three.

The playmaking that he flashed at Oklahoma State was undeniable but there is some concern that his passing isn’t plus yet. He averaged more turnovers than assists and while his teammates weren’t NBA quality, elite passers usually make it work no matter who they’re playing with.

Cunningham is the best prospect because his offensive floor and ceiling are both incredibly high. Even if he doesn’t pan out as a playmaker he’ll be able to get and hit just about any shot in his prime, while being at least an average passer.

The ceiling for Cunningham is Luka Doncic and his floor looks to be Tobias Harris. All in all, it’s almost a guarantee that he ends up as a multi-time All-Star with a good chance at multiple All-NBA selections.