Houston Rockets: 2 pros and cons to re-signing Kelly Olynyk

When the Houston Rockets traded Victor Oladipo to the Miami Heat for a 2022 first-round pick, Avery Bradley and Kelly Olynyk the belief was the Heat had gotten the best player in the deal. In the month since the trade went through, it has been the Rockets who have resoundingly come away on top.

While Avery Bradley hasn’t done much, Kelly Olynyk has been an absolute sensation. In 17 games he has averaged 17.9 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 30.9 minutes per game on 58.2-percent shooting from the field and 40.2-percent shooting from 3-point range.

All of those marks are near or are a career-best and when compared to what Oladipo has done in Miami it has to make Rafael Stone smile knowing he got one over the legend that is Pat Riley. Oladipo has appeared in four games for the Heat and posted averages of 12 points, 3.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 27.8 minutes per game.

Oladipo’s shot had abandoned him in Houston but somehow in Miami, it has been even worse, with a 37.2-percent field goal percentage and a 23.5-percent mark from 3-point range. While Oladipo rebuffed the Rockets’ extension offer, a decision he may regret, the franchise should consider using some of the money meant for him on his replacement.

Olynyk won’t continue to shoot like peak Dirk Nowitzki but he offers the Rockets some much-needed scoring punch and front-court depth. However, the veteran has his limitations on defense and doesn’t fit the Rockets competitive timeline. These are two pros and two cons to the Rockets’ extending Kelly Olynyk.

Next: Pro #2

Houston Rockets re-signing Kelly Olynyk Pro #2: They need his shooting

The Rockets have been the worst 3-point shooting team in the league this season, which goes a long way to explaining their league-worst record. In the NBA winning and losing have become intrinsically tied to how a team shoots from deep.

To make matters worse for the Rockets, they attempt the third-most 3-pointers as an overall percentage of their shots. The team is in a precarious situation where their offense is generating the types of shots that lead to success but their roster is incapable of capitalizing on it.

Kelly Olynyk’s 3-point stroke would give the Rockets a much-needed boost from behind the arc and help to drag their offense out of the basement. While Olynyk has only ever shot over 40-percent from 3-point range for a full season twice in his career, he has been better than the league average over the entirety of his career.

It can’t be forgotten that when it comes to shooting your position matters. It’s much more valuable to have a center who can hit threes because of how it takes your opponent’s best rim protector away from the paint.

Olynyk won’t solve all of the Rockets’ problems but he’ll go a long way in helping fix their most glaring weakness. If his 17 game cameo is a harbinger of things to come then he might just shoot them back towards the playoffs.

Next: Con #2

Houston Rockets re-signing Kelly Olynyk Con #2: His defense is suspect

Throughout Kelly Olynyk’s eight-season career he has started 155 of the 560 games he has played in, with 52 of those starts coming in this season alone. For a player as offensively gifted as Olynyk is, it is shocking how infrequently he has been able to crack a starting rotation.

The primary reason for Olynyk’s long track record as a bench piece has been his lackluster defense. He is neither a good rim protector nor defensive rebounder and that simply won’t cut it as a frontcourt player.

While the Rockets’ offense has been a dumpster fire, their defense, after a very promising start, has fallen off a cliff in the second half of the season. Olynyk’s defensive rating of 112 points allowed per 100 possessions with the Rockets would be the worst full-season mark of his career and highlights his limitations as a starter.

When asked to defend a team’s strongest offensive unit Olynyk struggles to contain his man and cover-up for others’ mistakes. His defense is adequate when facing off against a team’s second unit but re-signing him long term will necessitate the Rockets picking up another legitimate center.

Committing to a player like Olynyk long-term means you’re going to have to build around his limitations on defense. The Rockets have some great perimeter stoppers in Jae’Sean Tate and David Nwaba to help ease the burden but those two should be in vying for minutes in the starting rotation.

Olynyk is an offensive talent but his scoring ability is not so great that you can simply live with his paltry defense. In the end, the Rockets might prioritize scoring over stopping after the season they’ve had but a loss is a loss, no matter how many points you score.

Next: Pro #1

Houston Rockets re-signing Kelly Olynyk Pro #1: He’s a perfect frontcourt depth

The Rockets appear committed to Stephen Silas’ offensive vision that prioritizes spacing and 3-point shooting. If the franchise wants to continue down that path, then it would behoove them to add more shooting.

As discussed earlier, Olynyk is a knockdown shooter, especially for a frontcourt player. This is especially useful because Christian Wood has been the Rockets’ most reliable 3-point shooter this season.

With Olynyk and Wood both acting as the primary floor spacers for the Rockets, it will allow the two to go in and out of the game without the general structure of the offense changing. This type of in-game continuity will provide the Rockets the opportunity to play both with starters or reserves and maintain the overall principles of their offense for a full 48 minutes.

Reliable frontcourt depth will be paramount for the Rockets next season as their reliance on Christian Wood to win games was exposed when he went down with an injury. The Rockets were 11-10 when Christian Wood went down with an ankle injury that kick-started their franchise-record 20 game losing streak.

Olynyk isn’t the player that Wood is but having a more reliable option than the corpse of DeMarcus Cousins waiting in the wings needs to be at the top of the Rockets’ to-do list. The Rockets know what Olynyk can do in their offense and they should look to keep him around as they go through their rebuild.

Next: Con #1

Houston Rockets re-signing Kelly Olynyk Con #1: His hot stretch might make him pricey

Before Kelly Olynyk was traded to the Houston Rockets he was enduring the worst season of his career. Through 43 games with the Heat, he had posted career lows in field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, and points per 36 minutes.

However, his torrid 17 game start to his Rockets career has seen him undo much of the damage he did over the first half of the season and could see him in line for a big payday. At one point the 2021 free-agent class looked to be one of the best in history until a flurry of extensions took marquee players off the table.

Olynyk is not a star by any means but he is a solid NBA veteran that will have a market from the teams left with cap space. While the Rockets will be one of the teams armed with cap space, they will likely prioritize young players and veterans on one-year deals.

Olynyk has firmly played himself out of the one-year deal range and at 30-years-old he doesn’t fit into a youth movement. His most recent deal, for four years and $50 million, looks to be the going rate for a player with his skillset and quality.

The Rockets would be wise to bring Olynyk back on a deal that pays him in the $8 million range annually but anything above that is too steep a price for a player that has much more value to a playoff team looking to round out their rotation. For rebuilding teams, veterans on multi-year deals are usually a waste of resources.

The value in bringing in a veteran for the Rockets is their ability to flip that player, which becomes harder when there are more years and dollars attached to a player. If Olynyk keeps up this pace for the Rockets he should be looking at a sizable contract.

Frontcourt players with his offensive skill set are valuable for teams in need of a varied roster to match up with opponents in the playoffs. For the Rockets, who won’t be ready for a deep playoff run next season, that versatility is wasted.

If Olynyk is willing to return for the right price and years, then the Rockets shouldn’t waste a moment and bring him back. However, the NBA is a business, and Olynyk will likely chase the largest dollar amount or the place where he can win, and in both of those scenarios, the Rockets are excluded.