The Houston Rockets’ best and worst-case draft scenarios

NEW YORK, NY - JUNE 25: Commissioner Adam Silver poses for a photo with top prospects before the start of the First Round of the 2015 NBA Draft at the Barclays Center on June 25, 2015 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - JUNE 25: Commissioner Adam Silver poses for a photo with top prospects before the start of the First Round of the 2015 NBA Draft at the Barclays Center on June 25, 2015 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
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Sam Dekker Houston Rockets, Adam Silver (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
Sam Dekker Houston Rockets, Adam Silver (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

Houston Rockets’ draft scenarios: The worst-case scenario

It’s always good to start and end on a high note, which is why we’re saving the worst-case scenario for the middle. In the Rockets’ doomsday scenario they still end up with two first-round picks, they’re just in the 20’s.

The first thing that would have to happen is the Rockets land the fifth pick in the draft and the Thunder then swap that pick with Miami’s first-rounder. As of right now, there is a 0.1-percent chance Miami ends up with the 23rd pick and a 2.4-percent chance they land either pick 22 or 21.

In this doomsday scenario, the Rockets lose a coin flip and Miami rampages through the rest of the regular season while other teams fall apart. It’s all very unlikely but it still remains possible.

The next thing that would have to happen is for the Trail Blazers to completely fall apart and miss out on the playoffs and thus they keep their first-round pick. There is a 14-percent chance that happens, but the next worst option is that they go completely nuclear and move substantially up the standings.

The Trail Blazers have a 6.2-percent chance of landing the 23rd pick, which if it were to happen, along with the aforementioned Miami situation, then the Rockets could be staring at the 22nd and 23rd picks as their first picks of the draft. The final piece of the puzzle is the Bucks pick, which has the smallest amount of volatility but remains the least valuable pick.

The Bucks have a 0.6-percent chance of landing the 28th pick and a 5.2-percent chance of landing at 27. Outside of these picks being less valuable, the sting would be a bit more severe when the context is taken into account.

The Rockets, owners of the worst record in the league, will have the first pick of the second round. If the Bucks end up at 28th then the Rockets are simply moving up three spots in the draft, which isn’t nothing, but also isn’t much.

In the Rockets’ absolute worst-case scenario they end up with the 23rd and 28th pick in the draft. The chances of that happening are astronomically low, but the next horrible, albeit unlikely, scenario is they land the 22nd, 23rd, and 28th picks.

Either scenario would be catastrophic as the Rockets really do an infusion of good young talent. They could get lucky and select future All-Stars after getting incredibly unlucky, but that’s never a place any franchise wants to be in.

Next: The best-case scenario

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