Houston Rockets: 2 Pros and cons to trading back in NBA Draft

The Houston Rockets will make the second selection of the 2021 NBA draft. After not having a first-round pick since 2015 the Rockets are looking to make up for lost time and have three picks over the first 24 selections.

Would the Houston Rockets trade down in the NBA Draft?

Historically, the first overall pick is in a class of its own in terms of value, while picks two through five are roughly equal. The reality that the second and fifth picks aren’t all that different in terms of value opens up the possibility for the Rockets to trade back and add even more draft picks or another young player to build around.

With that in mind, the Rockets likely wouldn’t want to trade out of the top-five, which leaves the Cleveland Cavaliers (3rd), Toronto Raptors (4th), and Orlando Magic (5th) to do business with. The idea of the Rockets staying in the top-five and adding even more to their rebuild could be too enticing an offer to deny.

However, the second pick gives the Rockets their choice of prospect in a draft with four to five franchise-altering prospects. Moving back leaves them at the mercy of those ahead of them and they may end up with a player that they’re less excited about.

The Rockets have made excellent decisions under the leadership of Rafael Stone and no matter what the Rockets decide to do they’re in an excellent position to kickstart their rebuild. These are the pros and cons to trading back from the second overall pick.

Next: Pro #2

Houston Rockets trading down at NBA Draft Pro #2: Strength in numbers

As was mentioned before, the Rockets haven’t selected a player in the first round since 2015 when they picked Sam Dekker with the 18th pick. In fact, no player on the Rockets roster under the age of 25 was selected in the first round of the draft.

The Rockets need as much high-end talent as possible and trading the second pick for more selections or assets does just that. The Orlando Magic are the most obvious trade partners as they own the fifth and eighth pick.

Having the fifth, eighth, 23rd, and 24th picks in the draft would give the Rockets an incredible infusion of young talent to build around. It shouldn’t be forgotten that every player, no matter where they’re drafted, has the potential to blossom into a superstar.

The Rockets need a superstar and while the second pick gives them one good chance at landing one, adding one more chance doesn’t hurt either. There’s also the chance that the Rockets could get a future pick or a young player and a pick if they swing a deal with the Cavaliers who pick third or the Raptors who pick fourth.

When you finish with the worst record in the league, as the Rockets just did, one player isn’t solving all of your problems. Trading back and adding more will allow the Rockets to plug the multitude of holes this roster has.

Next: Con #2

Houston Rockets trading down at NBA Draft Con #2: What If Cade slips?

Cade Cunningham has emerged as the clear number one overall prospect in the 2021 NBA draft. He combines elite shooting, shot creation, passing, and size for a perimeter-oriented player.

That being said, Evan Mobley has a compelling case to be the number one overall prospect and all it takes is for the Detroit Pistons to zig when everyone is zagging. If the Rockets trade out of the second pick and Detroit skips over Cunningham then the Rockets will have missed a golden opportunity to add a franchise cornerstone.

The chances that Cunningham slips past one remain low but if there are any rumblings that Detroit is interested in another prospect then the Rockets would be making a massive mistake to trade away the second pick. Whenever a team trades down they’re running the risk that their initial intel will change.

As slim as the chances are that Detroit skips Cunningham, it’s worth it to the Rockets to hold onto the second pick just to see if it happens. At worst the Rockets land the second-best player in the draft and at best they land Cade Cunningham.

Next: Pro #1

Houston Rockets trading down at NBA Draft Pro #1: They’ll know who their trade partner wants

The Rockets won’t be trading the second pick away blindly. They’ll have a very good idea of who each team is targeting with their picks so they should know who will be available to them.

When the Celtics traded the number one pick to the Philadelphia 76ers for the number three pick ahead of the 2017 NBA draft they knew that they wanted to select Jayson Tatum and that he would be there at three. The Celtics thought Tatum was the best prospect in that draft but knew they could land him and more assets by trading back in the draft.

For instance, if the Rockets think Jalen Suggs or Jalen Green is the right player for them and they’re confident that if they trade down that one of them will be there then trading the second pick becomes an easy decision. Trade out of two, land your favorite Jalen, add another first-round pick or player and the Rockets will have executed the trade down of their dreams.

The Rockets will know who they think are the true franchise cornerstones and how other NBA teams value them. Trading down isn’t some blind exercise, it is a highly coordinated and well-thought-out process where a team lands a player they covet while adding more assets for the future.

Next: Con #1

Houston Rockets trading down at NBA Draft Con #1: Evan Mobley might be the best player in the draft

While con number one was the Rockets would lose any slim chance at landing Cade Cunningham, con number two is they’d likely miss out on Evan Mobley, who could be the best player in the draft. As great as Cunningham was at Oklahoma State, Mobley was just as good if not better for the USC Trojans.

Mobley led the NCAA in two advanced statistics, win shares and Box Plus/Minus, which are both good historical indicators for a prospect’s NBA future. What makes it even more promising is that every freshman to lead the NCAA in those statistics is a bonafide superstar.

The list includes Anthony Davis, Kevin Love, Zion Williamson, and Kevin Durant. When the worst possible outcome for a player is Kevin Love you know you’re in some good company especially considering Mobley projects to be a plus on defense, which has long been Love’s lone weakness.

If the Rockets trade down from the second pick then they’re giving up on a chance to land a player who could be the best player in this draft. Mobley might not have the press right now, but if he plays like his statistical peers have in the NBA, then the Detroit Pistons might regret their decision with the number one overall pick.