Houston Rockets: Why Cade Cunningham isn’t a lock at no. 1 in NBA Draft

The Houston Rockets fell one pick short of the ultimate prize at the NBA’s draft lottery. With Rockets’ great and 1984 number one overall pick Hakeem Olajuwon representing the franchise at the lottery there seemed like an air of inevitability that Houston would secure its sixth number one overall pick in franchise history.

Unfortunately, even the greatness of Hakeem Olajuwon sometimes comes up short and the Rockets had to settle for the second overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft. In a draft as stacked as this one, the second pick is by no means a disappointment but it likely means the Rockets will miss out on the opportunity to select Cade Cunningham.

Houston Rockets: Cade Cunningham has emerged as the no. 1 prospect in the NBA Draft

Almost every NBA draft big board has Cade Cunningham as the best prospect in this draft. His combination of size, playmaking, and shot-making ability is perfect for the modern NBA’s spread pick and roll attack. He flashes the ability to be elite as an offensive initiator and off-ball as a catch-and-shoot assassin.

What makes Cunningham the number one prospect is his incredibly high floor. From what he has shown, the worst outcome for his career is as a more creative passing Tobias Harris. Harris has been maligned for his bloated contract, but he very nearly had a 50/40/90 season.

Cunningham has earned the distinction of the number one prospect, but the difference between him, Evan Mobley, and Jalen Green, the next two best prospects, has become overstated. While Cunningham’s high floor makes him a safe bet, Mobley and Green’s higher upside open up the floor for debate at the top of the NBA draft.

Next: Why Cade Cunningham isn't a lock for no. 1

Houston Rockets: Why Cade Cunningham isn’t a lock at no. 1 in the NBA Draft

If Cunningham’s freshman season at Oklahoma State, where he shot 40-percent from 3-point range and 84.6-percent from the free-throw line, proved that he is a knockdown shooter, then it also proved that his playmaking isn’t quite as good as advertised. Over the course of the season, Cunningham had more turnovers than assists and his 3.5 assists per game ranked 13th in the Big-12.

This doesn’t mean that he’s lost cause as a passer, just that his passing likely will take time to be a plus at the NBA level. Another area of concern is that while Cunningham proved to be a knock-down 3-point shooter, his ability to finish within the arc was less impressive.

Cunningham only hit 46-percent of his two-pointers which is a troubling number for his NBA future. It either means that he struggled to convert shots close to the basket or that he struggled to get those shots in the first place. Hitting 46-percent of your midrange jumpers is great, but never getting to the rim is not.

Some draft analysts have compared him to Luka Doncic, which is a massive stretch. Doncic, at 19-years-old, was already the best player in the second-best league in the world, was a far better facilitator, and could get to the rim whenever he wanted. Cunningham is a good prospect but comparing him to Doncic is both reckless and lazy.

It should be mentioned, that a mitigating factor for Cunningham is that he was not surrounded by much if any future NBA talent in college. However, even with that caveat, he’d be more of a slam dunk prospect if his passing and 2-point field goal numbers were a bit better. The other factor to consider is completely outside of Cunningham’s control and is how good both Evan Mobley and Jalen Green were last season.

Next: Why Evan Mobley and Jalen Green could go no. 1

Houston Rockets: Evan Mobley or Jalen Green could be the no. 1 pick in the NBA Draft

Mobley put together one of the most impressive statistical freshman seasons in history. By win shares and Box plus/minus he was the best player in the country, a feat only one other freshman has ever pulled off, Anthony Davis.

Mobley’s upside as an elite defensive center and a go-to option that can score and facilitate out of the high post is nearly unmatched. There’s a chance that he could be a souped-up version of Bam Adebayo, which would make him one of the ten best players in the league.

If Mobley’s upside is Bam Adebayo 2.0 then Jalen Green’s upside is a more athletic Bradley Beal, which sounds an awful lot like Michael Jordan. Now, comparing anyone to Michael Jordan is foolish, but Green’s combination of athleticism, body control, and shooting stroke give him as good a chance as anyone to win multiple scoring titles.

Green’s long-term potential has three things going in its favor. The first, is his age, he won’t turn 20 until next February, the second, is his production, he averaged 17.9 points on 52.9-percent 2-point shooting, 36.5-percent 3-point shooting, and 82.9-percent free-throw shooting, and the third is he already has one season of professional basketball under his belt.

The fact remains, both Evan Mobley and Jalen Green are tremendous prospects, and, depending on your taste, they have a claim to go number one. Cunningham is the safest bet to be an All-Star but Mobley and Green’s ultimate upsides remain just as high if not higher.

The Rockets might have missed out on the number one overall pick but that doesn’t mean they’ll miss out on a transformative player. If Cade Cunningham is no lock to go number one, then sitting in second, is a hell of a place to be.