3 Houston Rockets poised to have a breakout 2024-25 season

It's hard to predict breakout seasons for a team like the Houston Rockets. Why?

Look at this roster. It's exceedingly young. In theory, nearly anyone could break out:

(With all due respect to Jeff Green).

We'll still give it a try. There are some players who we can disqualify from this exercise. For example, Alperen Sengun isn't a breakout candidate - he broke out in 2023-24. If he takes another step, that would be great, but it won't qualify as a breakout season.

Meanwhile, we're too scared to forecast a breakout season for Jalen Green. If anything, we're just hoping for some consistency from him. We're not sure if Cam Whitmore will earn enough minutes to properly "break out".

Now, let's get to the three Rockets we do think could have a breakout season in 2024-25.

Jabari Smith Jr.

If you look closely, Smith Jr. is distinctly trending towards a breakout season.

His progress from his 2022-23 rookie year to last year's sophomore campaign was notable, but it was subtle. The basic counting stats scarcely changed. Smith Jr. averaged 12.8 points and 7.2 rebounds per game as a rookie, and 13.7 points and 8.1 rebounds per game in 2023-24.

Dig a little deeper. Smith Jr.'s True Shooting % (TS%) jumped from 51.4% to 57.1%. That leap was buoyed by a huge jump in three-point percentage from 30.7% to 36.3%.

Moreover, his Box Plus/Minus (BPM) rose from -3.7 to -0.4. That roughly reflects Smith Jr.'s progress between the two seasons - he went from being awful to being fairly good.

If he can make a similar leap in his third year, he'll be great.

Tari Eason

Realistically, Eason was on the verge of a sophomore breakout before he got injured.

His BPM rose from -1.7 to 1.6. Eason was on his way to impacting winning in 2023-24. Unfortunately, after 22 games, Eason's season was over.

We've repeated this stat ad nauseam. We'll repeat it because it bears repeating. Eason was the only player in the NBA's top 50 in both Offensive Rebound % and Steal % in 2022-23 as a rookie. His ability to generate extra possessions, to borrow the popular parlance of NBA X, may (almost literally) be generational.

Will he break out in 2024-25? That's to be determined. Eason's path to playing time could be impeded by Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, and Dillon Brooks. He also, in theory, doesn't need to improve to be a significant rotation piece.

Still, if he does, he'll have a breakout year.

Amen Thompson

Thompson's trajectory as a rookie was fascinating. Before the draft, he was billed as a 6'7" point guard without a jump shot. Throughout 2023-24, that's not how the Rockets used him.

Instead, Thompson was primarily used off the ball. He ended up looking remarkably effective in that role. Thompson feasted in the dunker's spot - especially once Alperen Sengun was injured. Will that be his role moving forward?

Not if the Rockets want him to reach his potential. Thompson could be a defensive wing and pick-and-roll finisher/lob threat for the rest of his career. He'd still get paid, and he'd be remembered fondly. Still, he wouldn't reach his immense potential.

With that in mind, we'd expect the Rockets to give Thompson more on-ball reps in 2024-25. Perhaps he'll occupy a similar role as he did last year with the starters, and get more opportunities to run the offense with the second unit.

If it goes well, there's no telling what his status will be by the season's end.