There's been a lot of talk about who the Houston Rockets should trade for.
It's that time of year. Rockets fans have little else to think about. So, they're busy envisioning their team with their preferred star player on the roster ahead of 2024-25.
Here, we're going to rain on some parades. Spoiler: we're about to play the spoiler. It's easy to produce fan fiction about all the superstar players the Rockets could acquire.
Here are 4 potential trade targets they need to avoid this summer.
1. Darius Garland
If this was last summer, we might be more open to a Garland deal.
After all, he averaged 21.6 points and 7.8 assists on a sterling 58.7 True Shooting % (TS%) that season. Unfortunately, time doesn't only heal wounds - it can open them up as well. In 2023-24, Garland averaged 18.0 points and 6.5 assists with a 56.0 TS%.
Player Efficiency Rating (PER) tells an even grimmer tale. Garland had a PER of 18.8 in 2022-23, and just 14.5 last season. A PER of 15.0 represents a league-average player.
We can hear the hipsters now - "imagine using PER in the year of our Lord 2024". The broader point holds. Garland suffered a steep decline in 2023-24.
Now, it seems the Cavaliers will look to move him. Garland is a young, talented player. He's also redundant alongside Fred VanVleet. With no assurances that he'll hit his previous levels, the Rockets should avoid investing assets in Garland this summer.
2. Andrew Wiggins
On the subject of decline...
Wiggins had a rough season in 2023-24. He averaged 13.2 points with a ghastly 54.4 TS%. In terms of the eye test, something looked amiss. Wiggins looked uncharacteristically disengaged throughout the year. His defensive impact was lessened as a result.
It seems the Warriors would like to move on from him. Unlike Garland, Wiggins won't be costly. The Rockets could likely offer Dillon Brooks and Jock Landale for him, and the Warriors would accept simply to clean up their cap sheet.
The Rockets should also prefer to keep their books clean. Wiggins is on a lower-value deal than Brooks, and he's hardly an upgrade. The Warriors spent half a decade dashing the dreams of Rockets fans:
There's no reason to do them any favors now.
3. Kyle Kuzma
Kuzma is a good player. He's also, to some extent, fool's gold.
Sure, he averaged 22.2 points per game last year. He also finished with a Box Plus/Minus of -1.1. Sure, that number is dragged down by the Wizards' poor season. Still, there's little evidence that Kuzma can contribute to winning in a featured offensive role.
Could he thrive in a complementary role? Possibly. Still, it's worth noting that Kuzma's best three-point shooting season saw him connecting on 36.1% of his 5.6 threes per game in 2020-21. His career mark of 33.7% reflects the truth - Kuzma is a subpar floor spacer.
Otherwise, he's a jack of all trades - and a master of none. Kuzma is a fine defender and a capable passer, but he doesn't stand out in either category. He's a favorite of fans who admire the depth of his offensive bag, but as far as production goes, he's not worth the onerous contract he's owed for the foreseeable future.
4. Jimmy Butler
There was a time when we badly wanted Butler to join the Rockets. It was a simpler time. Drake and Kendrick Lamar were dominating the airwaves - oh, wait.
OK - James Harden and Chris Paul were terrorizing the NBA. We miss those days, but they're gone.
Sure, Butler remains an impactful player. Yes, he'd align perfectly with Ime Udoka and the Rockets' newfound cultural values. None of that means that the Rockets should acquire him and give him a max extension this summer.
Where does that get them? The Rockets aren't making a title run with Butler next year. They'd be sinking assets into a commitment to mediocrity. This isn't complicated - at 34, Butler is simply too old.
Sorry to rain on your parade.

