Analyzing the changes in the Houston Rockets' offense

The Houston Rockets have endured a slow start to the season. After losing to the Utah Jazz on Wednesday, their record slumped to 1-4. However, racking up losses shouldn’t come as a surprise for the youngest team in the league. 

Instead of worrying about their record, it would be wise to monitor on-court developments. In this post, we’ll look at the Rockets’ offense compared to last season to see if there has been growth, stagnation, or regression. 

Looking at the 2021-22 Houston Rockets offense

Thanks to the work of Nylon Calculus, we have a good idea of how the Rockets’ offense operated in 2021-22. Based on ball movement, player movement, shot selection, and pace, the Rockets had an offense style dubbed “run and spot-up,” as defined by Nylon Calculus. The only other team with a similar offense was the Los Angeles Lakers. 

This is how the type of attack looks in action: “This style is categorized by an up-tempo attack and a fairly efficient shot selection with lots of 3-pointers. However, once the offense gets out of transition the halfcourt offense tends to be fairly static with a primary creator attacking the basket, surrounded by spot-up shooters,” according to Ian Levy. 

This offense sounds great but there is one big difference between last season’s Lakers and Rockets. The Lakers had LeBron "freaking" James, and the Rockets had rookie Jalen Green and “maybe a point guard, maybe not” in Kevin Porter Jr. Any offense that looks like a LeBron-led offense needs to have a LeBron-like talent orchestrating it. 

It was painfully obvious that the Rockets’ offense needed to adapt. Levy perfectly summed up the next logical steps for the Rockets’ offense going forward, “It might be wise to expect some evolution from the Rockets. If Alperen Sengun’s playmaking responsibilities increase, they have the foundation of a much more dynamic halfcourt offense that could benefit from a lot more movement. Or, they could all just stand around and watch Jalen Green work.” 

How novel of a suggestion to build an offense around the strengths of your two best young offensive players. So how has that played out this season? 

How the Rockets’ offensive style looks compared to last season

Using the four offensive style markers used by Nylon Calculus, let’s see how the Rockets’ offense looks compared to last season. 

Ball movement is simply average seconds per touch. Player movement is more involved. It’s the average distance covered in feet in an offensive possession per 24 seconds. Shot selection is via the Moreyball percentage, essentially the percentage of shots a team takes around the rim, 3-point attempts, and free throws. Pace is via inpredictable and is the average time to shoot per offensive possession.

So what has happened to the Rockets’ offense? Thus far, there has been less ball movement and a tremendous drop in shot quality. The drop in shot quality is even more pronounced than the metric suggests. 

Moreyball percentage treats all 3-point attempts equally, even though corner threes are a more valuable shot. The Rockets have seen the percentage of their threes coming from the corner go from 20.7% in 2021-22 to 8.2% this season. This season’s mark is far and away the lowest in the league, with the Pelicans second to last, taking 14.7% of their threes from the corner. 

The Rockets have increased their pace and also seen an uptick in player movement. To put it all together, the Rockets are playing faster, passing less, moving a bit more, and it’s leading to way worse shots. The changes have led to a drop in offensive efficiency, going from 108.4 to 107.3.

The Rockets’ saving grace this season has been a massive uptick in offensive rebounding and cutting their turnover rate. Their improved ability to win the possession battle has helped keep the offense afloat, as their effective field goal percentage has gone from 53.4% to 48.6%. 

With an uptick in shot quality, the Rockets' offense could very easily show season-to-season improvement. 

Have the Rockets leaned into Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun?

The Rockets have clearly not overhauled their offense in the direction of more movement. While that may come in time, have they heeded the suggestion to lean into Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun on offense? 

Taking a peak at the tracking data, Kevin Porter Jr. is still clearly piloting the Rockets’ offense. He leads the team in usage at 27.6%, passes made per game (52.8), passes received per game (61.0), touches per game (79.0), time of possession per game (7.2 minutes), average seconds per touch (5.47 seconds), and drives (17.4). 

Porter leading the Rockets in some of these metrics is fine, but the gulf between him and Jalen Green indicates the team isn’t in a hurry to hand the offense over to Green. Green’s usage of 27.1% is close to Porter’s, but he is far behind him in passes made per game (29.8), passes received per game (43.6), touches per game (55.2), time of possession per game (4.2 minutes), average seconds per touch (4.58 seconds), and drives (11). 

Green is a far more explosive athlete than Porter, and it could do the Rockets’ offense some good if he were to increase his number of drives. From there, he could increase his passes per game as he gets comfortable collapsing a defense and then kicking out to shooters.

Green has also spent most of his minutes sharing the court with Porter. Of the 171 minutes he’s played this season, 149 have been with Porter on the court. Simply put, the Rockets haven’t leaned into Green being the lead ball handler this season. 

As for Alperen Sengun, there isn’t much data to suggest that the Rockets are keen on leaning into him as a creative hub. His 28.7 passes per game, in 24 minutes a game, make him one of their more prolific passers on per minute basis, but it has only led to three assists total. Last season, he averaged 5.9 assists per 100 possessions, this season it’s down to 2.0.

Sengun is fourth on the team in touches per game, which is noteworthy considering he’s sixth on the team in minutes per game. When Sengun is on the court, the Rockets are getting him the ball but it appears to be as a play-finisher and not a playmaker. 

It should be noted that Sengun has only played in three games and has yet to start. However, he has been able to play close to half of his minutes with Porter and Green. In that small 32-minute sample, the trio has produced an offensive rating of 115.5 points per 100 possessions. The Rockets would be wise to explore this lineup a bit more. 

It has only been five games and three for Sengun, but the suggestion to lean into Green and Sengun on offense is a mixed bag. Green takes up a sizeable load on offense, but he is the clear second fiddle to Kevin Porter Jr. Sengun has been getting touches, but he’s either struggling to find passes, or the offense isn’t leaning into that aspect of his game. 

The Rockets' offense is heading in a direction, but is it the right direction?

The idea of handing the keys to the Rockets’ offense to Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun isn’t a radical suggestion. ESPN’s basketball nerd extraordinaire Zach Lowe recently proposed to have Green, Porter, and Sengun operate in “an equal opportunity offense," but it has yet to materialize. 

Ian Levy saw it, Zach Lowe sees it, I see it, and the fanbase sees it, but it doesn’t look like the Rockets see it.

All of the indicators show an offense that is headed in an interesting direction. It’s getting worse at generating high-quality shots and is becoming more dominated by Kevin Porter Jr., not Jalen Green or Alperen Sengun. While Porter has made strides as a lead ball handler, his upside is nowhere near that of Green’s. Porter is also an excellent catch-and-shoot sniper, meaning his value isn’t exclusively tied to having the ball in his hand. Finally, Sengun looked to be one of the most gifted passing centers in the league as a rookie and has seen that aspect of his game completely dry up. 

There’s an offensive system where Sengun, Green, and Porter can utilize their strengths to power a dangerous Rockets’ offense. It’s incredibly early, but the Rockets don’t appear headed in that direction. It’s a shame because the talent for a fun offense is there, it just isn’t being leaned into.