Houston Rockets Season Review: Jalen Green

With the season in the rearview, the Houston Rockets will once again turn their attention to the top of the NBA Draft. While their own pick has yet to be determined, it is guaranteed to be in the top five and will be supported by the 17th overall pick via the Brooklyn Nets. 

The 2022 NBA Draft will provide the Rockets with another infusion of young talent, but it’s their first selection in the 2021 NBA Draft and the second overall, Jalen Green, that is already solidified as a franchise building block. 

Jalen Green’s rookie season was a tale of two halves. In the first half, he was by many measures the worst player in the NBA, but in the second half, he showed steady improvement before exploding down the stretch. 

Jalen Green’s Bad Beginning 

Jalen Green was objectively terrible to start his NBA career. His production stunk, and the team stunk when he was on the court. Making matters worse, as soon as he went out with a hamstring injury the Rockets ripped off a seven-game winning streak. In fact, over the 15 games that Green missed, the Rockets went 8-7. 

Over his first 35 games, he had ten games that bested the league average offensive rating of 112, eight games above 0 offensive box plus/minus, and five games with a game score above 15. It all added up to 14.1 points per game on 37% shooting from the field and 28.7% from 3-point range. 

If Green wasn’t a 19-year-old rookie and the second overall pick, he simply wouldn’t have been allowed to rack up the 30.1 minutes a game he was playing. However, the narrative that he was a bust was premature, but it did raise legitimate concerns about his long-term upside. 

Over the past decade, there are essentially no top-five picks that bomb that hard in their rookie season and end up as All-NBA quality players. A few have turned it around and become All-Star level players, but Green topping out as an All-Star, while an exceptional outcome, would feel like a letdown. 

Fortunately for Green and the Rockets, he used the final 32 games of the season to completely change his trajectory. 

Jalen Green’s Epic Turn Around

Jalen Green’s statistical struggles to start his career were not without precedent. Score first guards usually stink as they adjust to NBA quality defenders. Last season it was Anthony Edwards, and in years past it was Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, and Zach LaVine who struggled to find their scoring touch as rookies. 

The good old-fashioned eye test should have also eased concerns about Green’s ability to get buckets. His combination of explosiveness and agility allowed him to create open looks in isolation and beat his primary defender with regularity even though the shots weren’t falling. His shooting splits from the G-League (52.9% 2P%, 36.5% 3P%, 82.9% FT%) also indicated that he wasn’t going to be an inefficient shooter for long. 

Going back to offensive rating, offensive box plus/minus, and game score Jalen Green's second-half tells the story of a player raising their ceiling and their floor immensely. Over Green’s final 32 games, he had 19 games with an ORTg above 112, 22 games with a better than 0 OBPM, and16 games that eclipsed a 15.0 game score.

The most encouraging part of Green's second-half surge is that he got stronger as the season wore on. Over his final 22 games, he bumped his scoring average up to 22.6 points per game on 48.4% shooting and 39.5% on 3-pointers, and finished the season on a scoring barrage, scoring 30 or more points in six of the final seven games with a career-high 41 points in the final game of the season.

While Green solidified his floor as a future 20 points per game scorer, there is still a tremendous amount of work for him to reach superstar status. 

Where Jalen Green Needs to Improve

The level of talent in the NBA is the highest it has ever been. Simply averaging 30 points per game doesn’t make you a top-15 player anymore. To be truly elite, Jalen Green will need to develop as a passer and/or defender to become a true superstar. 

Green’s easiest path to superstardom is to weaponize his already excellent scoring into elite playmaking. For his rookie season, Green averaged 2.6 assists per game and a 13.1% assist rate. For a player taking 14.2 field goal attempts a game, those are paltry passing totals. 

However, much like Green’s scoring ticked up in the second half, so too did his passing numbers. In his first 35 games, he averaged 2.2 assists and an 11.8% assist rate, but over his final 32, those marks ticked up to 3.1 and 14.8%. What’s even more promising is that he cut his turnovers over that same period, going from 2.3 turnovers to 1.7. Now that’s change we can believe in. 

Jalen Green the playmaker needs to be leaned into next season. He’s shown enough as a scorer and passer that he needs to be the focal point of the offense. If Green can become an above-average to elite playmaker and combine it with elite scoring he’ll be one of the top-10 offensive players in the league. 

Coming to a conclusion on Green’s defense is a difficult task. The Rockets were nearly the worst defensive team in the league, and one bad defender can make another, more competent defender, look helpless. It’s safe to assume that Green is not a plus defender right now, and if he becomes the focal point of the offense it’s unlikely he’ll have the energy to be a plus on both ends. 

Green has the physical traits to become a good point-of-attack defender, but to be elite, it requires a tremendous amount of energy that simply can’t be expected out of a player tasked with doing the heavy lifting on offense. As he adds strength he should become an average defensive player with the ability to be elite in necessary spurts. However, that is likely years away and not a given to occur. 

Jalen Green Season Review

Jalen Green’s second half turnaround should have made him a candidate for the most improved player award. This is not an overstatement, he went from the worst player in the NBA to a player that could be counted on to score 20 efficient points, all while improving his passing and cutting his turnovers.

Through 33 games, Green had a box plus/minus of -5.8, which at the time, was the worst of all qualified players. He finished the season with a -2.9 BPM, with -2.4 coming from defense, which is greatly influenced by overall team defense. Green’s rookie season has put him on track to be an All-Star in a hurry, and the All-NBA team may only be a few seasons away.

Jalen Green had a poor rookie season from an overall production standpoint, but it was excellent through a developmental lens. Growth is a skill and Green has proven to be near-elite at it. With his elite athleticism, rapidly developing skills, and proclivity to grow Green had a fantastic rookie season. Whether he makes the All-Rookie first team or not, he proved he'll be one of the five best players from a stacked 2021 NBA Draft class.