Depending on what it will take in draft pick compensation, the Rockets should absolutely pursue John Collins. That doesn’t mean give up the farm, but if all it takes is Eric Gordon and the Bucks’ pick this year, then the Rockets have to consider making the deal.
Unfortunately, the Rockets’ assets don’t align with Collins’ value. The Bucks’ pick looks to be low-value, the Hawks would want to move Eric Gordon to a third team and get something that fits their current needs more, and the Rockets’ own picks and the incoming Brooklyn Nets’ picks are too valuable to give up for Collins.
The reality is the Rockets will likely have to pass on Collins because there isn’t a deal to be made that makes sense from an asset management standpoint. If they were on the cusp of contention and Collins was the missing piece, it’s a different story, but this isn’t the stage in the rebuild to overpay for players.
Adding Collins hardly changes the Rockets’ championship probability. I’m a big fan of Collins and believe he could be an impact player in a different environment, but that ecosystem isn’t currently in Houston. It’s going to be a pass on John Collins for right now, but he could be a free agent in the summer of 2025.