Ranking 6 prospects the Houston Rockets are likely to select in 2024 NBA draft

The NBA draft is less predictable than it used to be.

That's because the league flattened the draft's odds. Finishing with the worst record in the league used to give you a much stronger chance of landing a top pick. Now, teams on the lower end of the lottery have a better chance of shooting up the board.

That's good news for the Houston Rockets. They own the Brooklyn Nets' pick in the upcoming draft. If the season ended today, that pick would have a 20.3% chance of landing in the top-4 and a 4.5% chance of landing first overall.

So you're telling me there's a chance?

Still, that chance is slim. The Rockets are more likely to draft somewhere between seventh and ninth. Fans of the organization ought to be looking at prospects in that range if they want to get excited about some young talent.

Here's our ranking of six prospects who routinely land in that range in mock drafts.

6. Stephon Castle, UConn

Meanwhile, this draft is especially unpredictable. With a distinct lack of star power, we see prospects mocked all over the place. Castle has an especially wide berth.

After all, this is a 6'6" guard/wing who has impressive defensive tools. Castle is also a capable ball-handler who can leverage solid athleticism to drive to the hole. What's not to like?

The shooting. Castle shot 26.7% from long-range this year. For a Rockets team that's already trying to accommodate Alperen Sengun, Jalen Green, and Amen Thompson, that's a problem.

The Rockets could still justify selecting Castle. If they think he's got the highest upside on the board, he may be their guy. Still, for a team with win-now aspirations, it could make more sense to select a player who fits with the rest of their core.

5. Dalton Knecht, Tennessee

Castle has drawn comparisons to Jimmy Butler. By contrast, Knecht is more regularly compared to Donte DiVincenzo. What are we doing here?

Well, let's be honest - Castle isn't likely to be Butler. He has the potential, but if that was his likely outcome, he'd be the number one pick in the draft. On the other hand, Knecht is more likely to live up to his NBA comparisons.

The Rockets could use a player like DiVincenzo. Knecht is a 6'6" guard who canned 39.7% of his triples this year. With plus positional size, he should have defensive utility at the professional level as well.

This would be a safe pick. For a Rockets team brimming with high-upside talent, safety may be the best route. If Knecht is on the board when the Rockets make their selection, they should take a look at him.

4. Matas Buzelis, G-League Ignite

Another weak shooting prospect (27.3%), Buzelis may not be an optimal fit with the Rockets. If he's on the board when they're making their selection, they may have to take him anyway.

After all, Buzelis was once seen as a prospect with number-one pick potential. It's not hard to see why. Buzelis is a 6'8" wing with plus athleticism. He also has a versatile skillset - Buzelis has impressive court vision in the open floor and can guard across positions.

Still, that three-point percentage is problematic. In all likelihood, it's the reason Buzelis has fallen out of the number one pick conversation.

Could the Rockets gamble on his upside? Sure. Nobody's ever complained about having a surplus of young star talent. On the other hand, if this front office is more concerned with roster construction, they'll prefer the next prospect on our list.

3. Ron Holland, G-League Ignite

Much of what was said about Buzelis could be said about Holland. He's another athletic, 6'8" G-League Ignite wing who can do everything besides shoot.

Holland's shooting was even worse - he hit just 24.0 of his threes this year. We know what you're thinking. Why are we ranking him ahead of Buzelis?

Well, we're buying Holland's upside (even) more. His athleticism is a little more impressive. Holland is strong, and his fantastic burst allows him to bully his way to the rim against a wide range of defenders.

No, he's not a clean fit with this team. This would be another upside swing for the Rockets. If you're looking for a ready-made contributor, move on to the next prospect on this list.

2. Reed Sheppard, Kentucky

Shooting is certainly not an issue for Sheppard. He drilled an astonishing 52.1% of his three-point attempts for the Kentucky Wildcats this year.

This isn't your catch-and-shoot specialist, either. Sheppard can knock them down off the catch or dribble. He can manipulate his body to hit contested threes. This is an elite shooter who also has the ball-handling and craft to put pressure on the rim.

Like Buzelis or Holland, he may be off the board by the time the Rockets are on the board. On the other hand, Sheppard isn't perfect either. At 6'3" with limited athleticism, there are concerns about his defense at the NBA level.

Still, those concerns would be lessened if Amen Thompson was the Rockets' long-term point guard. Meanwhile, if Jalen Green has truly turned a corner, Sheppard could be the perfect combo guard to complete Houston's long-term backcourt.

1. Cody Williams, Colarado

Shooting has emerged as a theme in this piece. In a sense, Williams is bucking the trend. He's not a strong or weak shooter - this is a question mark for Williams.

Sure, he connected on 41.5% of his three-point attempts this year. Why did he only attempt 1.7 of them per contest? Will Williams be a hesitant three-point shooter at the NBA level?

If not, the sky is the limit for him. This is a prototypical, do-it-all 6'8" wing. Williams is lethal in transition, a plus passer, and a versatile defensive player.

In this draft, that feels like enough. All of these prospects have concerns. It feels likely that Williams can be coached to attempt more threes. The Rockets should find out - unless they're picking higher than expected, that is.