Rockets got an absolute steal with Fred VanVleet extension

James Piercey

Oklahoma City Thunder v Houston Rockets / Tim Warner/GettyImages

The Houston Rockets owe a lot to Fred VanVleet for changing their culture. Somehow, they still managed to get him on a discount this summer.

Perhaps that owes to the league's free agency landscape. VanVleet is coming off a down year, and money is tight. If the Rockets weren't facing competition for VanVleet's services, it makes sense that they'd get him on a good deal.

That's not what the Game Theory Podcast's Sam Vecenie was expecting to happen.

Rockets get below-market deal for VanVleet

"I was expecting that deal to be like 3/90 to 3/100...maybe he just didn't have a market....2/50 for Fred VanVleet is an unbelievable deal"

-Sam Vecenie of the Game Theory Podcast

It's true. The Rockets have been paying VanVleet roughly $42.8 million per season. That's an exorbitant number, but VanVleet's value to the team went beyond on-court impact. They've been paying for his leadership. The Rockets were also forced to overpay for veterans when attracting VanVleet to a less-than-attractive situation.

The situation has changed. The Rockets are once again a marquee franchise. They're title contenders, so they need high-value deals on the books. So, the question is this:

Is $25 million a high value deal for VanVleet strictly from a basketball perspective?

Rockets paying VanVleet appropriately

Let's look at who else is in that salary range.

The Heat will pay Terry Rozier about $26 million next year. Miles Bridges will get an even $25 million from the Hornets. The Clippers will pay John Collins handsomely with about $26.5 million.

If you isolate the albatross-ish deals, VanVleet's number looks excellent. That's not to say it's the best deal in the NBA. Trey Murphy III's $25 million looks a little nicer. You'd arguably rather have Mikal Bridges at $24.9 million, or Jaden McDaniels at $24.8 million.

Otherwise, VanVleet's deal is one of the best in that range. Still, it would look a lot better if he's able to bounce back from his 2024-25 season.

Rockets need a bounce back season from VanVleet

VanVleet's 0.9 Box Plus/Minus (BPM) from last year was one of the lowest marks of his career. His 34.5% three-point shooting was subpar as well. He needs to improve both of those marks to make this a high-value contract.

Yet, even if he replicates last year, it's a fine deal. There's little downside here. VanVleet provides intangibles and basketball intelligence that's difficult to quantify. The Rockets got one of the best deals of the summer with this contract:

Arguably, they owe VanVleet more.

James Piercey

James Piercey is the site expert for Space City Scoop, covering the Houston Rockets. He has a Master of Arts in Political Science as well as a Journalism diploma from the College of the North Atlantic. His work has been featured on TheDreamShake and various FanSided pages. He's also appeared on Sports 56's Real Sports Talk radio show and The Lager Line podcast. James has been watching the Rockets since Hakeem Olajuwon's prime was over. In his spare time, he makes music and watches wrestling with a slight sense of shame. A Rockets fan since 1997, James has seen everything - besides a Rockets championship. James is also a 3x East Coast Music Awards-nominated rapper, but music has taken a backseat to video games and wrestling as he navigates a midlife crisis.