Houston Rockets fans are relieved.
Not because of their .500 record. If anything, the team's overall play has been discouraging. The Rockets can't seem to secure a large lead. They gave up a 17-point lead against the Hornets, and nearly dropped a game they'd otherwise dominated against the Spurs. Alperen Sengun and Fred VanVleet are struggling.
In the midst of it all, Jalen Green has arrived.
His explosion last March may have been real. Watching Green since then, it has felt like something clicked. He's playing like a man who intends to decline his player option in a couple of seasons.
Is it sustainable?
Rockets need Green to alter his shot diet
Over half of Green's field goal attempts are three-pointers.
Yes, we're serious. Green is attempting 52.3% of his shots from beyond the arch. That is patently absurd.
For the time being, he's justifying his shot diet. Green is hitting 41.3% of his three-point attempts. That's fantastic, It's also unlikely to hold throughout the entire season.
How frequently have we seen a player shoot as poorly as Green has throughout his career morph into the best high-volume three-point shooter in the NBA? Rockets fans are riding high now, but that next 2/11 game is going to act as gravity:
It's going to bring them down.
It's worth noting that exactly half of the Rockets' first four games have come against the Spurs. They roster arguably the most imposing rim deterrent in the NBA. Every team won't have a Wembanyama in the paint looking to turn away shots.
That's only a partial explanation. Against a Hornets team that featured almost zero rim protection, Green attempted 15 threes - and hit 5 of them. Don't be naive: another one of those games is right around the corner.
Does that mean Green's leap is fraudulent?
Rockets have a star guard in Green
Not at all!
There's a fine line between realism and pessimism. Let's not cross it. Green is a different player than we've seen throughout his first four NBA seasons.
He's significantly craftier when finishing in the paint. His shot selection has improved. Green is taking a metric ton of three-point attempts, but for the most part, he's taking solid looks.
He doesn't need to overhaul his approach. Green should be a high-volume three-point shooter. Still, his current volume feels a bit excessive.
Green is shooting 11.5 threes per game. Something more in line with the 7.3 per game he's shot for his career feels like a more realistic shot diet. If he wants to take 8 or 9 per game, that's fine.
With the way he's playing right now, he deserves to make his own decisions.