1 Mistake the Rockets can't afford to make this summer (it's not what you think it is)

The Houston Rockets may want Kevin Durant, but they don't need him
The Houston Rockets may want Kevin Durant, but they don't need him | Alex Slitz/GettyImages

A lot of people make a lot of assumptions about the Houston Rockets.

It's hard to blame them. They're connecting the dots. The Rockets won 52 games in 2024-25 without a superstar shot creator. They have a surplus of assets. They'll trade those assets for that shot creator, right?

Perhaps. The Rockets may broker a blockbuster deal this summer. They may shake the NBA up by bringing in Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, or an unexpected target. It's something they should consider:

But not at all costs.

Rockets can be selective on trade market

You'll hear people say that the Rockets' path forward is obvious. They need to trade for one of these men. It's a faulty premise.

Let's say the Rockets make minimal roster moves. They'd be (largely) running back a 52-win team full of young players with room to grow.

That's a defensible decision.

It's too easy to frame the Rockets' fortunes in one-year increments. There's an identifiable reason why they lost in the first round, so that identifiable problem needs to be solved. It's an oversimplification. The Rockets could run it back, even regress a little bit, and target an MVP candidate next summer.

If you're viewing the team's outlook through a longer window, you'll see that there's no rush. If the above situation transpires, the Rockets will still be in one of the better situations in the NBA.

That's not to say they need to wait, either. The Rockets can push their chips in if they like a deal.

What they can't afford to do is overpay for anyone.

Rockets shouldn't operate with desperation

Trading for a 37-year-old when you're young is frequently a recipe for failure. The only reason the Rockets should consider Durant is that he should be available to them at a discounted price. If the Suns don't put a premium on their own draft capital, Houston shouldn't acquire Durant at market value.

Antetokounmpo is different. He's an MVP candidate in his prime. There is no such thing as an "overpay". Acquiring the Greek Freak would represent a tremendous pivot. The Rockets don't need to do it, but if he's available, it's something to consider.

Otherwise, the NBA offseason shocks us every summer. Someone we haven't even considered could be available. We saw the Mavericks trade Luka Doncic to the Lakers under the cover of darkness. Who knows? The Nuggets could decide that defense wins championships this summer.

Jokes aside, the Rockets likely won't trade for the Joker. The point is that nobody knows what might happen, but if sparks don't fly, that's OK too. That said, the Rockets shouldn't stand pat entirely:

There is one move they have to make.

Rockets must bring in specialist

The team still needs shooting.

Houston should acquire a player with elite three-point gravity. They need a player who's shot 40% from deep or better in multiple seasons. The team needs to have such a shooter to insert into their rotation to see how their potential cornerstones respond to his gravity.

It could open up the lane for Amen Thompson to be a primary playmaker. It could be a boon to Alperen Sengun's efficiency if it's harder to send multiple bodies at him. It could even benefit Jalen Green.

So, a knockdown shooter should be compulsory. A star should not be. The Rockets should only make a blockbuster deal if they think it's the right deal:

No matter what fans are assuming will happen.