The 1 sacrifice the Rockets made by extending Jalen Green

When the Houston Rockets selected Jalen Green with the second overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, they had lofty expectations. The Rockets thought they were getting a star.

That would be a generous way to describe Green. Sure, he's a star in terms of celebrityhood, but on the court, his impact has not been starry. Across three NBA seasons, Green has generally been disappointing.

The Rockets extended him anyway. Green signed an unprecedented rookie extension with the Rockets. He's got two guaranteed years, followed by a player option.

Will the Rockets regret handing him that deal?

Rockets make bold gamble on Jalen Green

To evaluate players, it's useful to compare them to their peers. Let's look at two other guards from Green's draft class who got extensions this summer in Jalen Suggs and Immanuel Quickley.

In 2023-24, Suggs had a Box Plus/Minus (BPM) of 1.0. Quickley's BPM was 0.6, while Green's was -0.5. Suggs' extension is worth roughly $30 million annually, Quickley's is worth $32.5 million, and Green's is worth $35 million.

So, the Rockets are paying the most to the least productive player. That's unfortunate on a surface level, but there are contextual factors to consider.

Firstly, upside is baked into any rookie extension. There's an assumption that these guys have not reached their final form.

Suggs had an outstanding season for the Magic last year, but much of his impact came on the defensive end of the floor. His offensive upside still appears limited. Backcourt defense isn't as valuable as frontcourt defense in the modern NBA. Orlando may be on the hook for $30 million a year for a role player.

As for Quickley, he was the 25th overall pick. Draft position tends to find its way into these negotiations. Quickley is already making more money than he was ever projected to make in the NBA. His agency was in no position to ask for any more than he received.

So, if we accept the premise that Green has more upside than Suggs, and understand that lottery picks tend to get paid, Green's deal becomes more defensible.

Does that make it a good deal?

Rockets miss out on potential upside

I gave the deal a C+ if you're looking for a concrete answer.

There's one major downside to Green's deal. Typically, teams seek surplus value out of rookie extensions. Now, it will be nearly impossible for the Rockets to get that surplus value from Green.

The odds of him exceeding $35 million worth of production in the next two seasons are minuscule. If Green does break out, he'll opt out of his third-year player option and seek a true max contract. Even if that next deal is fair, it won't be a discount.

Luckily, Sengun's deal is below market value - the Rockets will almost certainly get that surplus value from his contract. Ultimately, the downside of the Green deal is significant, but not backbreaking.

Let's assume Green does break out throughout this contract. Re-upping Green at market value isn't the worst situation. Teams expect to pay superstars at a superstar level.

Now, let's assume Green doesn't find his footing. Paying $35 million in each of the next few years for a losing player is suboptimal, but at least the deal isn't as long as a standard rookie extension. It should even be easy to trade in its final year as an expiring contract if Green isn't delivering.

Even if that's not what the Rockets expected from him.