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The Houston Rockets’ best and worst-case draft scenarios

By N.B. Lindberg

NEW YORK, NY - JUNE 25: Commissioner Adam Silver poses for a photo with top prospects before the start of the First Round of the 2015 NBA Draft at the Barclays Center on June 25, 2015 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - JUNE 25: Commissioner Adam Silver poses for a photo with top prospects before the start of the First Round of the 2015 NBA Draft at the Barclays Center on June 25, 2015 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /
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Coby White, Zion Williamson, Adam Silver, Ja Morant, De’Andre Hunter (Photo by Mike Lawrie/Getty Images)
Coby White, Zion Williamson, Adam Silver, Ja Morant, De’Andre Hunter (Photo by Mike Lawrie/Getty Images) /

Houston Rockets’ draft scenarios: The likeliest outcome

As it stands, the Rockets have a 52.2-percent chance of landing in the top four and keeping their first-round pick. That still leaves a 47.8-percent chance that they’ll land at fifth and be sent Miami’s first-round pick which looks likely to land between picks 16 and 19, that being said, it remains more likely that the Rockets keep their first, although just barely.

The Trail Blazers currently have a 14-percent chance of landing a pick in the lottery, which gives the Rockets an 86-percent chance of keeping the pick. If the pick conveys it will likely land between picks 18 and 22.

The Bucks have guaranteed that they won’t finish with a top ten pick so the Rockets will be able to swap their second-round pick for the Bucks first-round pick. As of right now, the pick is projected to land anywhere from pick 24 to 26.

The wild card in all of this is that the Rockets own a pick swap from the Brooklyn Nets but it looks unlikely that it will play much of a factor as their record is very similar to the Bucks and it cannot be swapped between those two. The likeliest outcome for the Rockets is pretty rosy, all things considered.

They have a better than 50-percent chance to land a top-four pick, an 86-percent chance to land a pick around 20, and a 100-percent chance to snag a pick around 25. Obviously, how the players selected develop will be the ultimate barometer, but from a pure draft capital standpoint the Rockets, likely, will be in very good shape.

Next: The worst-case scenario