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The Houston Rockets’ best and worst-case draft scenarios

By N.B. Lindberg

NEW YORK, NY - JUNE 25: Commissioner Adam Silver poses for a photo with top prospects before the start of the First Round of the 2015 NBA Draft at the Barclays Center on June 25, 2015 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - JUNE 25: Commissioner Adam Silver poses for a photo with top prospects before the start of the First Round of the 2015 NBA Draft at the Barclays Center on June 25, 2015 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /
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Yao Ming (C), the Houston Rockets’ overall pick in the 2002 NBA draft (JAMES NIELSEN/AFP via Getty Images)
Yao Ming (C), the Houston Rockets’ overall pick in the 2002 NBA draft (JAMES NIELSEN/AFP via Getty Images) /

Houston Rockets’ draft scenarios: The best-case scenario

To wash away all that doom and gloom let’s look at the absolute best-case scenario for the Rockets 2021 draft. The Rockets, owners of the worst record in the league, have a 14-percent chance of landing the number one overall pick.

Portland has a 0.7-percent chance of landing the 16th pick and a less than 0.1-percent but not 0-percent chance of securing and sending the Rockets the 15th pick. In any case, the Rockets would be very fortunate to receive a pick right outside of the lottery from the Trail Blazers but it’s not impossible.

Finally, the Bucks have a 0.2-percent chance of snagging the 23rd pick but a 46.4-percent chance of ending up with the 24th pick. The absolute best-case scenario from the Bucks is very low, but the next best thing has an incredibly high chance of happening.

The chances that the Rockets’ best possible outcome comes to fruition are incredibly low, but that 14-percent chance to land the first pick is as good odds as you’ll get. In all reality, the only thing that matters is that single pick.

ESPN’s Jay Bilas was almost the Houston Rockets general manager. Next

If the Rockets land a top-four pick then their draft will be a success. If they end up with Miami’s pick it will be an abject failure. Great players have been drafted outside of the lottery but it’s incredibly rare. The Rockets’ future hinges on chance, but you’ve got to like their odds.