Houston Rockets’ draft scenarios: The best-case scenario
To wash away all that doom and gloom let’s look at the absolute best-case scenario for the Rockets 2021 draft. The Rockets, owners of the worst record in the league, have a 14-percent chance of landing the number one overall pick.
Portland has a 0.7-percent chance of landing the 16th pick and a less than 0.1-percent but not 0-percent chance of securing and sending the Rockets the 15th pick. In any case, the Rockets would be very fortunate to receive a pick right outside of the lottery from the Trail Blazers but it’s not impossible.
Finally, the Bucks have a 0.2-percent chance of snagging the 23rd pick but a 46.4-percent chance of ending up with the 24th pick. The absolute best-case scenario from the Bucks is very low, but the next best thing has an incredibly high chance of happening.
The chances that the Rockets’ best possible outcome comes to fruition are incredibly low, but that 14-percent chance to land the first pick is as good odds as you’ll get. In all reality, the only thing that matters is that single pick.
If the Rockets land a top-four pick then their draft will be a success. If they end up with Miami’s pick it will be an abject failure. Great players have been drafted outside of the lottery but it’s incredibly rare. The Rockets’ future hinges on chance, but you’ve got to like their odds.