The Houston Rockets’ best and worst-case draft scenarios

The 2021 draft could make or break the Houston Rockets‘ future. Saddled with the worst record in the league the Rockets need an infusion of talent if they want to regain their status as a championship contender.

Due to the NBA draft lottery odds and a litany of trades the Rockets draft is far from a certain thing, which means their future quite literally relies on chance. The trade that landed the Rockets Russell Westbrook included a 2021 top-four protected first-round pick swap with the Oklahoma City Thunder.

If the pick lands in the top four the Rockets keep their pick, but if it falls to fifth, then their pick will be swapped with the lesser of the Miami Heat’s and Thunder’s pick. The Rockets, as part of the Robert Covington trade, also have the Portland Trail Blazers first-round pick, although it is top-14 protected.

It should be quickly noted that the Rockets also have the Detroit Pistons’ first-round pick, although it is top-17 protected. The Pistons have no chance of making the playoffs so this pick will have to wait to be conveyed.

The final first-round pick the Rockets own is a swap that will allow them to swap their second-round pick with the Milwaukee Bucks’ first-round pick if it falls out of the top-10 as part of the P.J. Tucker trade. The Rockets also have the ability to swap picks with the Brooklyn Nets from the James Harden trade but it appears unlikely that activating it will yield a better draft position.

Now that the Rockets’ entire 2021 first-round is mapped out let’s take a look at the probability of the Rockets’ likeliest draft outcomes and then the best and worst-case scenarios for the franchise.

Next: The likeliest outcome

Houston Rockets’ draft scenarios: The likeliest outcome

As it stands, the Rockets have a 52.2-percent chance of landing in the top four and keeping their first-round pick. That still leaves a 47.8-percent chance that they’ll land at fifth and be sent Miami’s first-round pick which looks likely to land between picks 16 and 19, that being said, it remains more likely that the Rockets keep their first, although just barely.

The Trail Blazers currently have a 14-percent chance of landing a pick in the lottery, which gives the Rockets an 86-percent chance of keeping the pick. If the pick conveys it will likely land between picks 18 and 22.

The Bucks have guaranteed that they won’t finish with a top ten pick so the Rockets will be able to swap their second-round pick for the Bucks first-round pick. As of right now, the pick is projected to land anywhere from pick 24 to 26.

The wild card in all of this is that the Rockets own a pick swap from the Brooklyn Nets but it looks unlikely that it will play much of a factor as their record is very similar to the Bucks and it cannot be swapped between those two. The likeliest outcome for the Rockets is pretty rosy, all things considered.

They have a better than 50-percent chance to land a top-four pick, an 86-percent chance to land a pick around 20, and a 100-percent chance to snag a pick around 25. Obviously, how the players selected develop will be the ultimate barometer, but from a pure draft capital standpoint the Rockets, likely, will be in very good shape.

Next: The worst-case scenario 

Houston Rockets’ draft scenarios: The worst-case scenario

It’s always good to start and end on a high note, which is why we’re saving the worst-case scenario for the middle. In the Rockets’ doomsday scenario they still end up with two first-round picks, they’re just in the 20’s.

The first thing that would have to happen is the Rockets land the fifth pick in the draft and the Thunder then swap that pick with Miami’s first-rounder. As of right now, there is a 0.1-percent chance Miami ends up with the 23rd pick and a 2.4-percent chance they land either pick 22 or 21.

In this doomsday scenario, the Rockets lose a coin flip and Miami rampages through the rest of the regular season while other teams fall apart. It’s all very unlikely but it still remains possible.

The next thing that would have to happen is for the Trail Blazers to completely fall apart and miss out on the playoffs and thus they keep their first-round pick. There is a 14-percent chance that happens, but the next worst option is that they go completely nuclear and move substantially up the standings.

The Trail Blazers have a 6.2-percent chance of landing the 23rd pick, which if it were to happen, along with the aforementioned Miami situation, then the Rockets could be staring at the 22nd and 23rd picks as their first picks of the draft. The final piece of the puzzle is the Bucks pick, which has the smallest amount of volatility but remains the least valuable pick.

The Bucks have a 0.6-percent chance of landing the 28th pick and a 5.2-percent chance of landing at 27. Outside of these picks being less valuable, the sting would be a bit more severe when the context is taken into account.

The Rockets, owners of the worst record in the league, will have the first pick of the second round. If the Bucks end up at 28th then the Rockets are simply moving up three spots in the draft, which isn’t nothing, but also isn’t much.

In the Rockets’ absolute worst-case scenario they end up with the 23rd and 28th pick in the draft. The chances of that happening are astronomically low, but the next horrible, albeit unlikely, scenario is they land the 22nd, 23rd, and 28th picks.

Either scenario would be catastrophic as the Rockets really do an infusion of good young talent. They could get lucky and select future All-Stars after getting incredibly unlucky, but that’s never a place any franchise wants to be in.

Next: The best-case scenario

Houston Rockets’ draft scenarios: The best-case scenario

To wash away all that doom and gloom let’s look at the absolute best-case scenario for the Rockets 2021 draft. The Rockets, owners of the worst record in the league, have a 14-percent chance of landing the number one overall pick.

Portland has a 0.7-percent chance of landing the 16th pick and a less than 0.1-percent but not 0-percent chance of securing and sending the Rockets the 15th pick. In any case, the Rockets would be very fortunate to receive a pick right outside of the lottery from the Trail Blazers but it’s not impossible.

Finally, the Bucks have a 0.2-percent chance of snagging the 23rd pick but a 46.4-percent chance of ending up with the 24th pick. The absolute best-case scenario from the Bucks is very low, but the next best thing has an incredibly high chance of happening.

The chances that the Rockets’ best possible outcome comes to fruition are incredibly low, but that 14-percent chance to land the first pick is as good odds as you’ll get. In all reality, the only thing that matters is that single pick.

If the Rockets land a top-four pick then their draft will be a success. If they end up with Miami’s pick it will be an abject failure. Great players have been drafted outside of the lottery but it’s incredibly rare. The Rockets’ future hinges on chance, but you’ve got to like their odds.