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Houston Rockets: The difference between the 1st and 4th pick in the draft

By N.B. Lindberg

NEWARK, NJ - JUNE 28: (L-R) Anthony Davis, head coach John Calipari and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist of the Kentucky Wildcats pose during the first round of the 2012 NBA Draft at Prudential Center on June 28, 2012 in Newark, New Jersey. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
NEWARK, NJ - JUNE 28: (L-R) Anthony Davis, head coach John Calipari and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist of the Kentucky Wildcats pose during the first round of the 2012 NBA Draft at Prudential Center on June 28, 2012 in Newark, New Jersey. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /
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RJ Barrett poses with NBA Commissioner Adam Silver (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images) /

Houston Rockets draft: The difference between the third and fourth pick

While the drop between the first and second pick is massive, the drop from second to third and third to fourth is not nearly dramatic. In fact, historically, the third pick in the NBA draft has outperformed the second pick by producing 56.6 career win shares and 66.1 in all drafts between 1976 and 2011.

That doesn’t mean the third pick is better than the second pick, but what it does indicate is that the difference between the second and third pick is essentially non-existent. The same can be said of the fourth pick, which, historically, has produced almost identical value to the second pick in the draft.

Since 1976, the fourth pick has produced 45.2 career win shares and 55.3 between 1976 and 2011. So what does this all mean? Simply put, if the Rockets don’t land the number one overall pick, as long as they stay in the top-four, they are landing the same quality of prospect.

Career win shares pick 1-4

Pick:                                 1            2           3           4   

Career Win Shares:  68.5     45.4     56.6     45.2

Next. Houston Rockets Draft: The value of the 23rd and 24th picks

The Rockets have a 52.1-percent chance of keeping their pick, a 14-percent chance of landing the number one overall selection, and a 37.9-percent chance of landing the second, third, or fourth pick. Landing the first pick would be a massive moment for the Rockets but if they don’t, long as they stay in the top four, the difference between two, three, and four won’t alter their future much.