Houston Rockets draft: The difference between the third and fourth pick
While the drop between the first and second pick is massive, the drop from second to third and third to fourth is not nearly dramatic. In fact, historically, the third pick in the NBA draft has outperformed the second pick by producing 56.6 career win shares and 66.1 in all drafts between 1976 and 2011.
That doesn’t mean the third pick is better than the second pick, but what it does indicate is that the difference between the second and third pick is essentially non-existent. The same can be said of the fourth pick, which, historically, has produced almost identical value to the second pick in the draft.
Since 1976, the fourth pick has produced 45.2 career win shares and 55.3 between 1976 and 2011. So what does this all mean? Simply put, if the Rockets don’t land the number one overall pick, as long as they stay in the top-four, they are landing the same quality of prospect.
Career win shares pick 1-4
Pick: 1 2 3 4
Career Win Shares: 68.5 45.4 56.6 45.2
The Rockets have a 52.1-percent chance of keeping their pick, a 14-percent chance of landing the number one overall selection, and a 37.9-percent chance of landing the second, third, or fourth pick. Landing the first pick would be a massive moment for the Rockets but if they don’t, long as they stay in the top four, the difference between two, three, and four won’t alter their future much.