Houston Rockets: The difference between the 1st and 4th pick in the draft

The Houston Rockets are apprehensively waiting for the NBA draft lottery on June 22nd. This lottery will have ripple effects on the franchise for years to come and could set them up for contention or see them lose out on a top-five pick altogether.

As part of the trade that netted the Rockets Russell Westbrook, they gave the Oklahoma City Thunder the right to swap first-round picks in 2021 if it fell out of the top four. At the time, the Rockets were championship contenders with James Harden locked up for years, so the franchise felt it was in no danger of being near the top of the draft.

Unfortunately, things took a turn for the worst as Harden and Westbrook forced trades and the Rockets finished the season with the worst record in the league without the fate of their first-round pick being in their hands. The Rockets are guaranteed to land a pick within the top-five, but they only have a 52.1-percent chance of it landing in the top-four, and holding on to it.

Houston Rockets’ 2021 Draft Lottery Odds

1st           2nd           3rd           4th           5th

14%       13.4%        12.7%      11.9%       47.9%

While the franchise’s chances at a premium prospect remain a coin flip, they do own the best odds of landing the number one overall pick. Assuming the Rockets win that coin flip and land a pick in the top-four, what is the difference between the first pick and the second pick or the third pick and the fourth pick? The answer is both a little and a lot.

Next: The value of the 1st and 2nd pick

Houston Rockets draft: The difference between the first pick and the second pick

It shouldn’t come as a surprise but the first pick in the NBA draft, historically, is by far the best pick. Since the NBA-ABA merger, the first pick has produced an average of 68.5 career win shares and if you factor out every draft since 2011, that number jumps to 80.7 win shares.

To put a face to that number, Carlos Boozer produced a career total of 80.3 win shares in his 13-year career. While landing Carlos Boozer with the number one overall pick doesn’t seem exciting, it needs to be remembered that for every LeBron James there is a Greg Oden or Michael Olowokandi weighing down that average.

However, the Rockets only have a 14-percent chance of landing the number one overall pick. What happens if the Rockets end up with the second pick? How much expected-value do they lose?

The dropoff from the first pick to the second pick is one of the largest drops in the draft’s history. On average the second overall pick produces 45.4 career win shares and 55.9 if we cut off all drafts after 2011.

Once again, to put a face to that number is a second overall pick that Rockets fans should remember fondly, Steve Francis produced 54.1 win shares over his nine-year career. The peak of Francis’ career was remarkable but it was short-lived due to injury and if he had been the number one overall pick his career would have likely been viewed as a disappointment.

The Rockets’ future changes dramatically if they land the number one overall pick and if they end up with the second pick their ceiling, historically, will be lowered dramatically. That being said, the Rockets can still keep their pick if they land the third or fourth pick, but how much would that lower their ceiling.

Next: The value of the 3rd and 4th pick

Houston Rockets draft: The difference between the third and fourth pick

While the drop between the first and second pick is massive, the drop from second to third and third to fourth is not nearly dramatic. In fact, historically, the third pick in the NBA draft has outperformed the second pick by producing 56.6 career win shares and 66.1 in all drafts between 1976 and 2011.

That doesn’t mean the third pick is better than the second pick, but what it does indicate is that the difference between the second and third pick is essentially non-existent. The same can be said of the fourth pick, which, historically, has produced almost identical value to the second pick in the draft.

Since 1976, the fourth pick has produced 45.2 career win shares and 55.3 between 1976 and 2011. So what does this all mean? Simply put, if the Rockets don’t land the number one overall pick, as long as they stay in the top-four, they are landing the same quality of prospect.

Career win shares pick 1-4

Pick:                                 1            2           3           4   

Career Win Shares:  68.5     45.4     56.6     45.2

The Rockets have a 52.1-percent chance of keeping their pick, a 14-percent chance of landing the number one overall selection, and a 37.9-percent chance of landing the second, third, or fourth pick. Landing the first pick would be a massive moment for the Rockets but if they don’t, long as they stay in the top four, the difference between two, three, and four won’t alter their future much.