Houston Rockets: 37 best prospects in the 2021 NBA Draft

The Houston Rockets will have three first-round picks in the upcoming 2021 NBA draft. Two of those picks are already set in stone with the 23rd and 24th picks, but the Rockets’ own first-round pick will be determined by tonight’s NBA draft lottery.

The Rockets have the joint best odds, with the Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic, of landing a top-four pick but by virtue of having the worst record in the league, they cannot land a pick any lower than fifth. The Rockets sent a 2021 top-four protected first-round pick swap to the Oklahoma City Thunder as part of the Russell Westbrook trade, which makes tonight’s draft lottery a franchise-altering night.

Regardless of whether the Rockets keep their own pick or end up with the 18th pick, via Oklahoma City via Miami, the franchise has a chance to land three top-30 prospects. The immediate future of the Rockets’ franchise rests firmly on the astuteness of their NBA draft big board.

To figure out who the best prospects in the 2021 NBA Draft are one can pour over hours of video, attend games, crunch numbers, talk to coaches, and generally devote every waking hour to understanding what makes these young men special, or one can take the people who have done that work and aggregate it into one ranking.

I call this the wisdom of the crowd NBA Draft big board. Instead of trusting one person’s judgment to guide our big board we will be taking eight experts’ opinions and turning them into one super-expert ranking of prospects.

To give credit where it is due because I’m simply standing on the shoulders of giants and calling myself tall, the draft big boards I used were nbadraft.net, tankathon.com, theringer.com, cbssports.com, espn.com, sportingnews.com, nba.com, and nbadraftroom.com. While there is some level of consensus in these big boards, what you’ll see is that after the first few prospects opinions begin to differ.

Not every big board was the same length so only players that were listed as a top-30 prospect (first-round quality) on at least one of these lists were included. Using this method 37 prospects emerged to give us the top-37 players in the 2021 NBA draft. Each player’s average ranking and the range of their rankings are also included to show when prospect quality is viewed to fall off. Now, on to the top five.

Next: Top-5

Houston Rockets NBA Draft big board 1-5

Rank Player                  Ave Rank          Range

#1    Cade Cunningham:    1.3               1-3

#2    Evan Mobley:              2.4               2-3

#3    Jalen Suggs:                2.8               1-4

#4    Jalen Green:                3.6               2-4

#5    Jonathan Kuminga:  5.3               5-6

If the Houston Rockets keep their first-round pick then they can take solace knowing that there isn’t much debate over who the top-five players are in this draft. Cade Cunningham has seemingly locked down the number one overall slot with every single big board, save for one, regarding him as the best player in the draft.

After Cunningham is where the debate begins. The difference between Evan Mobley and Jalen Suggs is small but the fact remains that most people have Mobley as the second-best prospect and Suggs as the third best. What this means for the Rockets is that if they miss out on the first overall pick there isn’t much of a difference between the second or third.

Rounding out the top five are two players from the inaugural class for the NBA’s G-League Ignite program. Both Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga skipped college and instead played professionally in the G-League.

How Green and Kuminga two fare in the pros will have a dramatic impact on how teams view the next wave of high school to G-League prospects and them being behind three college players isn’t a surprise. NBA front offices and scouts have long undervalued players that skipped college in favor of an alternative route and it wouldn’t be a surprise if both Kuminga and Green end up better players than at least one of the players likely selected ahead of them.

Some analysts have Green as high as two but for most, he is viewed as the fourth-best prospect in the draft. Meanwhile, Kuminga has locked down the fifth spot with all but two ranking him as the fifth-best prospect, and the two that deviated have him ranked sixth.

Next: 6 to 10

Houston Rockets NBA Draft big board 6-10

Rank   Player               Ave Rank      Range

#6    Scottie Barnes:     7.9               5-11

#7    Keon Johnson:      8.4               6-15

#8    Davion Mitchell:  9.1               5-17

#9    Josh Giddey:         12.6             8-16

#10 Franz Wagner:    13.4              8-19

The only way the Houston Rockets end up making a selection between picks six and ten is if they make a trade, which isn’t out of the realm of possibility. However, even if the Rockets don’t make a selection in this range it is imperative that they know if a good prospect is falling and the value that other teams might place on certain picks.

Scottie Barnes and Keon Johnson are pretty firmly entrenched as the sixth and seventh best prospects in the draft. Only two big boards have Barnes outside of the top-10 and both of them have him 11th, and while the same can be said of Johnson, one board has him as the 15th best prospect.

The eighth-ranked prospect, Davion Mitchell, has a lot of buzz surrounding him right now and he is the most likely bet to beat his draft ranking due to his perceived NBA readiness. At 22-years-old he is an older prospect but there is almost zero chance he falls out of the top-10 as he is pretty solidly considered the eighth-best prospect.

So far in this draft, we’ve seen drop-offs in perceived prospect quality, based upon average rank, from first to second, third to fourth, fifth to sixth, and now eighth to ninth. These drops don’t mean much for the future but they indicate which prospects are viewed as being roughly the same quality.

Josh Giddey, the ninth-rated player, is an intriguing prospect that every source has a mid to late lottery pick. He’s a jumbo-sized playmaker from Australia and if he had dominated in the NCAA for a season he might be knocking on the top-five, but he looks like a safe bet to go anywhere from seventh to fourteenth.

Rounding out the top-ten is Franz Wagner, who the Rockets should keep an out on if he is to slip. Wagner’s average ranking is closely bunched with players ranked 11 through 14 and one big board has him ranked as low as 19th. Wagner is close to a top-ten talent and if the Rockets can land him by packaging the 23rd and 24th picks then they should absolutely consider doing it.

Next: 11 to 15

Houston Rockets NBA Draft big board 11-15

Rank  Player                   Ave Rank      Range

#11   Kai Jones:                  13.6          10-20

#12   James Bouknight:  13.9           7-23

#13   Moses Moody:        13.9           8-20

#14   Corey Kispert:         13.9           9-22

#15   Jalen Johnson:        15.8           6-35

For prospects 11 through 14, and really 10 through 14, the difference in average ranking is from 13.4 (Moritz Wagner) to 13.9 (James Bouknight, Moses Moody, Corey Kispert). What this means for the Rockets is that there is a good chance that a player who is a lottery pick talent will be available outside of the lottery.

Kai Jones lands at 11th on the back of the confidence scouts have in him as no worse than a top-20 prospect but no better than a top-ten player. Jones has incredible upside but was tremendously inconsistent in college, his combination of low-ceiling and high-floor as a prospect is nothing like his actual potential. If he drops the Rockets might want to take a swing.

Players 12 through 14 all have an average rank of 13.9. James Bouknight, Moses Moody, and Corey Kispert are all also viewed as top-ten players at best and in the low 20s at worst. These are all players that the Rockets should have on their radar as they could be able to land one of them by trading up, being patient, or, god-forbid if they end up with the 18th pick.

Jalen Johnson comes in at 15 and there is a small drop between him and the players ranked 10th through 14th. His average ranking of 15.8 sees him as high as sixth and as low as 35th. This is a player that the Rockets should target aggressively.

His wide range in ranking has a lot to do with him deciding to forgo the rest of his collegiate season after only 13 games at Duke. Johnson wasn’t an unstoppable force for Duke but he was highly productive, efficient from the field, and was widely considered a top-ten high school recruit.

Some viewed his decision to leave Duke as him quitting on his team. A more leveled and fair perspective would also take into account that Duke wasn’t very good, there was a pandemic going on, and Johnson didn’t want to get hurt or a virus when he was mere months away from playing the basketball that actually leads to a paycheck.

Johnson, if he drops, is a gamble that the Rockets should consider. Players with top-ten talent aren’t usually available outside of the lottery. If he is, the Rockets have the assets to move up and snag him.

Next: 16 to 20

Houston Rockets NBA Draft big board 16-20

Rank    Player              Ave Rank         Range

#16   Alperen Sengun:  16.1               8-36

#17   Jaden Springer:    19                  10-27

#18   Jared Butler:         19.8               11-31

#19   Sharife Cooper:    21                   7-35

#20   Chris Duarte:        21.3               16-25

Alperen Sengun is ranked 16th and his average rank is 16.1 even though his rankings ranged from eighth to 36th. He’s an interesting prospect for the Rockets to keep an eye on for a few reasons.

At only 18-years-old he won the Turkish League MVP, which is viewed as the second-best domestic league in the world outside of the NBA, and his free throw shooting (81.2-percent on 6.2 attempts a game) portends the ability to one day have a credible 3-point shot. Sengun is a more traditional frontcourt player but there’s a chance that if travel wasn’t so restricted this past year that he’d be ranked much higher.

Jaden Springer comes in at 17th in these rankings and while a few publications see him as a borderline top-ten prospect most place him in the 20s. The Rockets have two picks there so he’s definitely a prospect to watch and if he falls to 23rd then the Rockets may have no choice but to snag him.

Jared Butler and Jaden Springer’s average ranking is very close but there is less of a consensus on Butler than Springer. Butler’s rankings range from as high as 11th to as low as 31st. There’s a good chance he’s available to the Rockets but he doesn’t appear to be a player worth trading up for.

Sharife Cooper has one of the largest ranges of any player in these rankings. He goes as high as seventh and as low as 35th, with the majority of big boards putting him in the 15 to 25 range. Cooper is small and his shooting numbers in college weren’t elite so his upside doesn’t appear great.

Next: 21 to 25

Houston Rockets NBA Draft big board 21-25

Rank    Player                    Ave Rank           Range

#21   Usman Garuba:         21.6                15-27

#22   Isaiah Jackson:          21.6                11-32

#23   Cameron Thomas:   21.8                 14-29

#24   Ziaire Williams:        22                    10-31

#25   Tre Mann:                  23.3                 10-42

What should be exciting for Rockets fans is that the 19th ranked player (21 average rank) and 24th ranked player (22 average rank) are separated by exactly one in average rank. Since the Rockets have the 23rd and 24th picks they’ll be able to land a prospect that could have realistically gone five or six spots higher.

Usman Garuba and Isaiah Jackson the 21st and 22nd ranked players have the exact same average rank of 21.6. Garuba’s range, from 15-27, is much smaller than Jackson’s, 11-32, and with news that Jackson has withdrawn from the NBA Draft Combine there’s a good chance neither are there at picks 23 and 24.

Cameron Thomas comes in at 23rd with an average ranking of 21.8 and a draft range between 14 and 29. Most boards don’t appear to view Thomas as a lottery talent but there is a good chance he is available for the Rockets.

Ziaire Williams is an interesting prospect for the Rockets to take a look at. He’s 24th on this list with an average ranking of 22 but was a top-ten recruit out of high school. His lone collegiate season wasn’t encouraging but his upside might be too much to ignore if he’s still available.

The differences in opinion on Tre Mann are what see him the 25th ranked prospect, even though one board has him 10th and three more have him outside of the 20s. Mann flashes potential as a scorer and ball-handler and the fact that he grew two inches after his freshman season could mean that his upside is even greater than what has been scouted. If the Rockets select Mann with the 23rd or 24th pick then they might have measured something that makes them think that Mann isn’t fully grown.

Next: 26 to 30

Houston Rockets NBA Draft big board 26-30

Rank     Player              Ave Rank    Range

#26   Ayo Dosunmu:         24           15-34

#27   Roko Prkacin:         31.5        18-NR

#28   Day’Ron Sharpe:   31.6        19-52

#29   Greg Brown:           33.1        28-56

#30   Charles Bassey:    35.7        25-NR

Ayo Dosunmu is the 26th ranked prospect and in many ways, he is the final player with a first-round grade. His average ranking of 24 and ranking range between 15 and 34 indicates that he is a first-round talent.

The Rockets don’t have a second-round pick this year so if they select any of the players mentioned either they acquired a second-round pick or they’re reaching on a prospect. Sometimes teams are right when they reach, but if they want any of these next prospects it’d make sense to use either the 23rd or 24th pick to trade back.

With the next group of players, we see a massive drop-off in average ranking and two players who weren’t even ranked on the sourced big boards. Roko Prkacin is the 27th ranked player but his average rank is 31.5 and he wasn’t even ranked on two boards.

Day’Ron Sharpe, the 28th ranked prospect, has an almost identical average ranking as Prkacin at 31.6. He’s viewed as either a late first-round talent or a second-round pick and likely won’t be high up the Rockets big board.

Greg Brown and Charles Bassey are the 29th and 30th ranked prospects and in many respects, they’re very similar prospects. They both look like late first-round picks at best and if they slide into the second round that wouldn’t come as a shock either.

Houston Rockets NBA Draft big board 31-37

Rank   Player                                     Ave Rank         Range

#31   Nah’Shon Hyland:                   35.8               19-66

#32   Joel Ayayi:                                 35.8                29-NR

#33   Rokas Jokubaitis:                   39.2                 25-NR

#34   Jeremiah Robinson-Earl:    39.4                  26-64

#35   Aaron Henry:                          41.7                  29-NR

#36   Marcus Bagley:                     42.7                   27-NR

#37   Max Abmas:                          46.7                   29-NR

Now that we’re into the second round, I’ll be brief. The two players on this list that have the best chance of sneaking into the first-round are Nah’Shon Hyland and Joel Ayayi. They have identical average rankings of 35.8 and in Hyland’s case, his highest ranking of 19 means someone thinks he is solidly a first-round talent.

The Rockets will have three first-round picks in the 2021 NBA draft with two in the 20s and maybe one in the top-five or the 18th pick. Either way, there are plenty of talented players who could drop and the Rockets need to be ready to pounce. There is wisdom in the crowd, hopefully, the Rockets are listening.