The NBA playoffs are around the corner. That's a focus for most Houston Rockets fans. They're looking at how they match up with both the Warriors and the Grizzlies.
Still, some diehard fans are looking ahead. Sure, the playoffs are their primary concern. They're also thinking about the lottery. Which young prospect will the Rockets select?
Cooper Flagg is a long shot. Houston's pick has a modest 3.8% chance of landing first overall. That's still a better chance than 16 other teams. The Rockets are in the lottery. Who knows what might happen?
Here are 3 ways landing Flagg would dramatically change the team.
1. Rockets' future with(out) Jabari Smith Jr. would become clearer
There's been chatter about Jabari Smith Jr.'s next contract.
Most Rockets fans like him. Smith Jr. is hyper-competitive. He's also developed into a useful player. None of which negates the fact that he isn't living up to the expectations of a third overall pick.
This was Smith Jr.'s third season as a pro. He averaged 12.2 points and 7.0 rebounds while shooting 35.4% from long-range. Smith's Box Plus/Minus (BPM) of 0.7 won't inspire the Rockets to pay him like a lottery pick. Yet, former lottery picks are often paid for potential as much as production. Smith Jr.'s agent may be seeking big bucks whether he's earned them or not.
As of now, he's an integral part of their wing rotation. If the Rockets land Flagg, that changes. Suddenly, Smith Jr. becomes expendable. The Rockets could let him hit Restricted Free Agent (RFA) and let some other team figure out what he's worth.
2. Rockets could form league's best defensive duo
By contrast, there are no questions about Amen Thompson's next deal. If the Rockets could offer him a max deal now, they likely would.
He's a bonafide Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Thompson's Defensive Box Plus/Minus (DBPM) of 2.6 ranks fifth in the NBA. Of the players ahead of him, one won't meet the minimum games played requirement (Victor Wembanyama) and one is Nikola Jokic:
He's not going to win Defensive Player of the Year.
Thompson may someday if the award isn't his this year. Flagg looks like somebody who will compete for that award for years to come as well. He averaged 1.4 steals and 1.4 blocks per game for Duke this year. Flagg's rare combination of perimeter and interior defensive prowess would make him and Thompson a formidable pair.
3. Rockets would have franchise player
This isn't intended as a slight against anyone else on the roster.
Is Thompson a franchise-caliber player? We'll see if he can make that sort of impact without a jumper. Alperen Sengun is a candidate, but his lack of shooting and athletic limitations could keep him from reaching franchise player status. Jalen Green needs to be more consistent before he reaches that level.
We haven't seen Flagg in the NBA. Who knows? He could be a bust. That said, he'd be the most pedigreed prospect on the Rockets' roster. It's likely that soon, they'd be building the team with Flagg in mind.
Although, we should see how the playoffs go first.