4 Ways the Rockets can defy history to beat the Warriors

It's not looking good for the Houston Rockets.

It's best to be realistic. The Rockets are down 3-1 against the Warriors. The history of teams coming back from that deficit is not encouraging. Moreover, a young group like the Rockets does not feel like a strong candidate to defy that history.

That said, it isn't over until it's over. The Rockets have a chance to narrow Golden State's lead on Wednesday. If they can win Game 5, anything is possible.

Here are four adjustments they need to make to pull off a miracle.

1. Decrease Jalen Green's minutes

Sorry.

This isn't what a lot of Rockets fans want to hear. They're standing by their guy. That's respectable - unless your name is Ime Udoka. In that case, it would be foolish.

Luckily, Udoka seems to agree. Green was on the floor for just 25 minutes in Game 4. He didn't make the most of his opportunities. The young guard finished with 8 points on 3/8 shooting and 1/5 shooting from three-point range.

It's been the same story for Green all season long. If he's hitting threes, he can be transcendent. When he isn't, he doesn't find a way to impact winning. By now, the Rockets should see that they can't rely on him to hit threes or impact winning.

It's hard to diagnose the problem long-term. The Rockets should be open to trading Green this summer, but they may not feel desperate enough to take a value loss. His trade value is likely to be in the basement after a (mostly) putrid playoff performance.

For the time being, the organization should be focused on beating the Warriors. Unfortunately, Green doesn't seem to be part of a winning formula.

2. Increase three-point volume

This may seem counterintuitive. The Rockets should increase their three-point volume while reducing the role of one of their highest-volume three-point shooters?

Yes. The Rockets need to find three-point shooting in other places. A look at Game 4's box score reveals some obvious sources.

Dillon Brooks took 2 threes in Game 4. Ditto for Jabari Smith Jr. Brooks should triple his attempts in Game 5, and Smith Jr. could at least double his.

Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson took 1 three combined. Neither is a confident shooter, but they should take a couple of triples each just to keep the defense honest. Even if they miss all of their attempts, a willingness to shoot should open up the offense to an extent.

However the Rockets solve this problem, it's a problem. They hit a scorching 47.8% of their threes in Game 4, but attempted just 23 of them. That's a difficult way to win when the Warriors put up 46 attempts.

3. Lean into size

Am I all over the place? The Rockets need to cut Green's minutes and increase their three-point volume while playing their worst shooting lineups. Does that sound crazy?

Sure - only, the Rockets can get threes up with their biggest lineups. Steven Adams and Alperen Sengun create so much space with their screens that the remaining Rockets are able to find daylight. That should be the strategy in Game 5.

Per CleaningTheGlass, the Rockets are +52.6 in 24 possessions when Adams and Sengun lineup with Smith Jr., Brooks, and VanVleet. That should be the Rockets' highest minute lineup in Game 5.

If it doesn't work? Well, nothing is necessarily working. The Rockets are down 3-1. It's time to throw Hail Marys, and these lineups have been wildly effective. Let's see if they can work in a larger sample size.

4. Don't be afraid of the moment

There's no deep analysis with this point. It's more of a psychological factor. The Rockets cannot shrink from the moment if they're going to vanquish the Warriors.

Yes, they have championship experience. Sure, the referees wouldn't throw Draymond Green out of the game if he committed a federal offense. The odds are stacked heavily against the Rockets.

They need to put that out of their minds. The Rockets need to play one game at a time. If Ime Udoka has them mentally prepared for what's next, the Rockets still have a chance.

Even if history isn't on their side.