Alperen Sengun’s All-NBA finish should give Rockets fans cause for concern

Alperen Sengun came into the season looking to build on an impressive year. The results were mixed. He made another All-Star team, but most of his production stayed in the same range.

He averaged more points this year compared to last season, but still finished below his average from two seasons ago. He set a career high in assists, but also had his lowest rebounding average since his rookie season. His advanced metrics were mostly in line with his past few seasons as well.

In the latest news, Sengun finished 20th in All-NBA voting, just missing the cut for an All-NBA Team. The top 15 players receive the honor. That also points to some stagnation. Last year, he finished 16th in the voting.

Let’s be clear: Sengun had an impressive season. Finishing 20th in All-NBA voting is further proof of that. NBA media members essentially said he was one of the 20 best players in the league this season, not including stars who failed to qualify because of the 65-game cutoff. That is absolutely worth celebrating. It should also make Rockets fans slightly nervous.

Sengun has not made the leap Houston needs

Sengun is one of Houston’s cornerstone building blocks. Two years ago, he was 21 years old and averaged 21.1 points, 9.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists. In his age-23 season, he averaged 20.4 points, 8.9 rebounds and 6.2 assists. Those are impressive numbers, but they do not show a major leap forward. Houston needs more.

We are not far removed from Sengun being compared to Nikola Jokic because of his uncanny ability to create for others from the center position. Those comparisons have mostly gone away. In their place, he is increasingly being compared to Domantas Sabonis. That is still a very good player, but it is a large step below Jokic.

Sengun can still make the leap

There are a number of ways Sengun can improve. Becoming a more complete scorer is the clearest. He is a career 28.1% shooter from three. He does not have to start shooting 40% from deep, but simply becoming a league-average three-point shooter would boost Houston’s spacing and make Sengun much more dangerous.

He will always be a below-average athlete by NBA standards, but he can still improve his positional defense. That would be a direct lesson from Jokic, who has overcome below-average athleticism to become a mostly average defender.

Sengun has flashed major upside. The statistics and All-NBA voting show that his production has mostly plateaued. If the Rockets want to reach their lofty championship goals, Sengun will have to find a way to break through to the next level. If he can’t, Houston may eventually have to ask a difficult question: is he truly part of their long-term core?

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