Amen Thompson's huge deal forces Fred VanVleet into questionable future

The Houston Rockets made a splash by extending Amen Thompson with a 5-year contract worth $208 million. This move puts Houston in a tough spot regarding the future of their cap space, leaving many questions about roster construction.

Fred VanVleet becomes one of those questions; looking ahead to next summer, VanVleet will be an unrestricted free agent. Will it be worth trying to potentially bring him back? Coming off missing all of last season with an injury, seeing VanVleet exercise his $25 million player option this past January may hurt in hindsight.

Fred VanVleet’s expectations for the 2026-27 season

One of the more obvious expectations for VanVleet is for him to have a healthy season; during the 2024-25 season, he produced 14.1 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per game. Looking forward, the hope is that he can at least still provide that level of production, but coming off an ACL injury and being 32 is something to think about.

Houston is a team loaded with defense; a huge need this year will be having effective shooters on the team. VanVleet, as a career shooter, is looking at 2.5 three-pointers made per game and a 37.1% three-point percentage.

VanVleet can play both point guard and shooting guard, so the want for him to unlock more of the Rockets’ offense by being the shooter they need is understandable. But at this stage of his career, that's a tricky ask. Comparing this upcoming season to last, not much has changed overall; does this mean Houston got lazy in the offseason?

Rockets have a lot of questions about their future plans

As of now, only time will tell if VanVleet finds himself back with the Rockets during the 2027-28 year; he may still think he is a $ 25-million-a-year player, and that is not what Houston can find itself paying in the future. The Rockets see this season as running it back with minor changes and are banking on the key injuries (VanVleet and Steven Adams) being back and making a difference.

This could be a make-or-break year not just for VanVleet, but for most of Houston’s roster; players like Kevin Durant have a player option at season’s end, and Head Coach Ime Udoka may not want to be at the helm of another disappointing season. VanVleet does not strike me as someone who is done after the season, so expect him to put in the work to bag another payday.

The Rockets will have tighter pockets after next season, with extensions for Thompson and Alperen Sengun kicking in, and VanVleet could be a casualty of their cap restrictions if he doesn't have a good year. His future with the Rockets could hang in the balance of his play and impact during the 2026-27 season.

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