Amen Thompson is proving how lucky the Rockets got in the 2023 NBA Draft

The Houston Rockets wanted Victor Wembanyama.

It's not a secret. Sure, the feeling wasn't mutual. Wembanyama's flagrant celebration when the Rockets' name was called at the 4th spot in the draft is burned into the collective memory of Rockets fans. It was the fist pump heard around the world - or, at least Houston (and San Antonio).

Still, the Rockets' prolific tank job was designed with Wembanyama in mind. The Rockets knew the odds were slim. If they didn't end up with Wembanyama, they had a contingency plan. Tanking for three years would yield lottery-level talent either way. Wembanyama was the hope, but there were other satisfactory realities.

We now exist in one. Ironically, the Rockets' most exciting young players didn't all come through the lottery. Jalen Green is the epitome of inconsistency, and Jabari Smith Jr. looks more like a role player than a superstar. By contrast, that fourth overall pick has been tremendous.

The Rockets are lucky they didn't end up higher in that draft.

Amen Thompson is outperforming his peers

It's likely that if the Rockets had landed the second or third pick, they'd have wound up with Scoot Henderson.

The Hornets defied expectations by grabbing Brandon Miller with the second overall selection. Let's suppose the Pistons had picked second, and the Rockets had picked third. Would the Pistons have made the same choice? Would they have looked to pair Henderson with Cade Cunningham?

Perhaps. For argument's sake, let's first assume they'd have taken the more natural fit in Miller. That leaves the Rockets choosing between Henderson and Thompson if they're picking third.

They would have picked Henderson. It's practically a foregone conclusion. Every big board in the universe had Henderson ahead of Thompson.

So far, those big boards were woefully misinformed.

In 2024-25, Thompson is averaging 11.9 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.1 steals, 0.9 blocks and 2.0 assists per game. Henderson is averaging 11.8 points, 5.1 assists and 0.9 steals per contest. The basic counting stats suggest that Thompson is marginally more productive.

They also don't do the gulf between the two any justice.

Thompson's Box Plus/Minus (BPM) is 2.6. Henderson's is a horrific -4.6. Two variables explain this wide discrepancy. Firstly, Thompson is highly efficient with a True Shooting % (TS%) of 60.9%. Henderson's 51.5 TS% is problematic. Secondly, Thompson is already one of the best defensive players in the NBA, and Henderson is a liability.

It's too easy to dunk on Henderson - literally and figuratively. He's still just 20 years old, and he's got every opportunity to have a meaningful NBA career. It is still fair to say that as of now, Thompson is on a far better trajectory.

How does he compare to Miller?

Thompson looks like the second-best player in his class

It's not nearly as clear-cut.

Miller is averaging an impressive 22.1 points per game as a sophomore. His 54.7 TS% isn't optimal, but it's solid. Miller is shooting a relatively strong 36.5% from long-range. He's also connecting on a stellar 70.2% of his shots between 0 and 3 feet. Miller is struggling in the midrange, but it feels likely that he'll find his touch in that area as his career continues.

Still, Thompson's 2.6 BPM dwarfs Miller's 1.2 mark. Miller looks like he'll be a comfortably better scorer than Thompson, but Thompson's elite defense and playmaking acumen seem to make him the more impactful player currently.

This is a toss-up. Likely, the Hornets wouldn't trade Miller for Thompson, and the Rockets wouldn't trade Thompson for Miller. That said, the catch-all metrics suggest that the Rockets were lucky that neither the Blazers or Hornets reached for Thompson:

Even if he isn't Victor Wembanyama