The Houston Rockets went into the NBA Draft Lottery with a chance at leaping up into the Top 4 -- of course, not with their own pick, but with a first-round pick from the Phoenix Suns routed through Brooklyn as a result of a genius trade by the Houston front office. Alas, the brilliant move didn't quite turn into gold, as the pick landed at No. 10 -- but that's still a master stroke for a Rockets team that landed the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference and will also add a Top 10 pick in next month's draft.
Houston Rockets general manager Rafael Stone was armed for battle by his predecessor, Daryl Morey, and as such has a clear goal in mind as he builds out a team in Space City: find stars. That means as many high-upside swings as possible to find the best possible talent for the Rockets.
Many of his moves have worked out toward that end; Alperen Sengun was an All-Star this season, Amen Thompson's star is skyrocketing and Reed Shepherd has explosive scoring capabilities. Even Jalen Green has those who still believe in superstar upside. Stone has pulled together an impressive collection of talent in Houston.
The Rockets made a brilliant trade
Yet the path to finding star talent is never complete, and Stone has a number of other bites at the apple thanks to a genius trade last summer. The Brooklyn Nets had a deal in place to trade Mikal Bridges to the New York Knicks for a whopping five first-round picks, but they were not going to move their only star if they couldn't also control their own first-round pick; tanking into the depths of the lottery only to send that pick to another team is a bitter draught the Nets have sipped before.
Houston held the rights to their 2025 and 2026 picks as a result of the James Harden trade; Harden himself may have moved on to another two teams at that point, but the Nets still owed the Rockets. Stone worked out a deal; they would return the Nets' two picks in exchange for four picks from the Nets' supply of draft capital gained in the Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving trades.
The Nets said yes, and initially the trade appeared well-balanced. The Rockets took two swings at getting a star and turned it into four; an unprotected swap with the Phoenix Suns in 2025, the Suns' unprotected 2027 first, and the two most favorable unprotected firsts from the Suns, Dallas Mavericks and Rockets in 2029. The Nets' picks appeared high-upside over the next two seasons, but this diversified the portfolio for Houston.
Many NBA teams don't engage in such trades; they are looking for real players to be changing teams. This type of future draft arbitrage takes a lot of confidence and an extreme amount of knowledge of the league. The Rockets have confidence that Stone is holding both as he wades into the waters of NBA trades.
11 months later, what once was an intriguing swing now looks like a home run blast. The immediate returns are excellent; the Phoenix Suns had a disastrous season while the Brooklyn Nets were more competitive than anyone expected. The Suns' pick finished just three slots in the lottery behind the Nets' own pick. With the San Antonio Spurs leaping up in the Draft Lottery, the Rockets will only pick two slots below the Nets, who will pick 8th.
Moving forward, the future is brighter as well. It is largely expected that Kevin Durant will head out of town this summer, and it's highly unlikely the Suns will regain any semblance of contender status by 2027, increasing the potential upside of that pick. And while 2029 is a long ways off, nothing about Matt Ishbia's leadership since taking over ownership of the team two years ago suggests the Suns will have their stuff together in four years.
Dallas, for their part, just took a generational superstar and traded him away for an injury-prone big man who will have dropped off precipitously by 2029. The upside for all of the picks involved has skyrocketed in the last year.
The Rockets have a lot to do to build a title contender. They need to find that star power, not merely hold multiple lottery tickets. The NBA Draft Lottery didn't bring a Top-4 pick, but it does bring a Top-10 pick to add to their young core. Now Rafael Stone has to lead Houston to the Promised Land.