Fred VanVleet’s injury turned Rockets’ strength into glaring weakness

As the Houston Rockets attempt to cope with their devastating loss of veteran point guard Fred VanVleet this season, they will depend heavily on young players Amen Thompson and Alperen Sengun in order to keep their revitalized offense afloat from a standpoint of facilitation.

Yet, according to Sam Vecenie on the latest episode of The Game Theory podcast, VanVleet's absence could lead to a serious dip in their turnover percentage, leaving them in serious trouble as they attempt to improve their half-court offense from last season.

Although Thompson and Sengun have both developed into relatively proven ball-handlers throughout their young careers, neither of them have the veteran experience that VanVleet possesses, and even a small decline in playmaking could be disastrous for this offense.

VanVleet's absence could pose a serious turnover problem for the Rockets

Houston's struggles on offense prior to VanVleet's arrival in 2023-24 are well-noted, and the team was 30th in turnover percentage in 2022-23. However, since his arrival, the Rockets have finished 7th and 11th in that category over the past two seasons, coinciding with the emergence of their young talent and developing this team into, at the very least, a capable offensive group.

Yet, according to Vecenie, VanVleet's absence could set them back a significant amount, and it remains to be seen just how effectively Sengun and Thompson can fill this gap: "VanVleet has been awesome at limiting turnovers for the Rockets the last couple of years. Anybody that watched Houston Rockets prior to Fred getting there... will tell you [that] this team turned the ball over like crazy."

Last season, as Houston's primary offensive facilitator, VanVleet posted the second-lowest turnover percentage of his career: a stunning 9.6% for a player whose primary responsibility was play creation. Although his production in many other areas took a dip, it is possible to say that the only reason the Rockets' offense was viable at all was VanVleet's ability to keep their possessions intact.

While Houston's offense has changed dramatically with the addition of Kevin Durant, the drop in reliability in the team's playmakers in VanVleet's absence could seriously hurt them. Thompson, who played a number of games out of the backcourt, posted a 14.6 turnover percentage, while Sengun, who has taken on playmaking out of the paint as an increasingly central piece to his game, posted a mark of 12.7.

While the Rockets' offense should, in many ways, improve this year with their addition of a superstar-caliber scorer, turnovers can kill teams in tight regular season games and especially in the playoffs, and Houston will desperately need Sengun and Thompson to keep those numbers down in order to remain effective.