Fred VanVleet's future is painfully obvious after Kevin Durant trade

The Houston Rockets answered a lot of questions by acquiring Kevin Durant.

Who's their closer? Kevin Durant. Who's their most important offensive player? Kevin Durant. If you watched this year's postseason and felt the Rockets failed because they didn't have a perimeter half-court creator, you'll be excited for 2025-26.

Still, they didn't answer every question. Everyone's waiting to see how the Rockets will round out their roster. Moreover, they're waiting to see what they'll do with Fred VanVleet's money. One thing seems clear:

VanVleet is going to be in Space City for a while.

Rockets invested in veteran point guard

At least, that's The Hoop Collective's Tim McMahon's impression.

"Fred VanVleet is firmly in their plans."

- Tim McMahon, The Hoop Collective

McMahon elaborates. He suggests that Houston could accept VanVleet's team option this year, pay him his lucrative $44 million, and renegotiate something team-friendly next summer. Alternatively, the Rockets could work out a long-term arrangement this summer.

The cap mechanics are difficult to navigate. Nobody can say with any certainty exactly what the future holds. That said, it seems overwhelmingly likely that the Rockets will retain VanVleet. He's been a massive component of their success and their culture. VanVleet is here to stay:

Is that the right decision?

Rockets should keep VanVleet for a while

The 2024-25 season wasn't particularly kind to VanVleet. He shot a pedestrian 34.5% from three-point range. That contributed to a 0.9 Box Plus/Minus (BPM) that was VanVleet's lowest mark since his third NBA season.

Let's contextualize the numbers. The Rockets suffered from a lack of perimeter creation. VanVleet shot a substantial 7.7 threes per game, and many of them were contested. Without a star perimeter creator, teams guarded VanVleet more closely than they will in 2025-26.

His drop-off in BPM feels too large to be a trend. It's more likely a blip. VanVleet's BPM in 2023-24 was 3.4. Even if he doesn't return to that level, he should regress to his mean to some extent.

If there's a valid concern about his stature in the organization, it's to do with the Rockets' young talent. If they're invested in Reed Sheppard as a cornerstone, or have any hopes of grooming Amen Thompson as a point guard, he's in their way.

That's fine - for now. If Sheppard is a viable backup next year, that's a win. Thompson's future as a primary ball-handler is uncertain. If the time comes for either to start, VanVleet would be a strong backup. If necessary, he should be movable on his next deal as well. For the time being, the Rockets need VanVleet:

There's no question about that.