Fred VanVleet's future with the Rockets hinges on Reed Sheppard

The Houston Rockets love Fred VanVleet, but they'd love to see the much younger Reed Sheppard replace him. His performance in 2025-26 should dictate VanVleet's future.

Perhaps that's too much pressure for a player of Sheppard's age. That's the reality of the NBA. Sheppard was drafted to a team with short-term title ambitions. Now, he's getting baptized by fire.

By all accounts, the Rockets have high hopes for him. He's slated for a substantial role in the upcoming season. The Athletic's Sam Vecenie is hearing the same.

"I expect him to be the backup point guard this season behind Fred and play 15-20 minutes a night"

-Sam Vecenie, The Athletic

That's a meaningful role. If Sheppard stars in it, he could usurp VanVleet soon.

Rockets have VanVleet's replacement in waiting

That said, there are two relevant questions here. First, we must ask how good Sheppard can be in 2025-26, but it also matters how VanVleet performs.

It's worth noting that he struggled in 2024-25. VanVleet's Box Plus/Minus (BPM) of 0.9 was one of the lowest of his career. His 34.5% three-point shooting limited his effectiveness last season.

Sheppard's BPM was -1.7. A leap to 0.9 would be impressive, but not unprecedented. A third overall pick is supposed to make a sophomore leap, and 0.9 is a high-but-reasonable bar for Sheppard to meet next year.

That said, VanVleet has an opportunity to bounce back. This could have been a down year. The veteran floor general could also benefit from Kevin Durant's immeasurable gravity on the perimeter.

Moreover, this is all an oversimplification. VanVleet's impact can't be measured by BPM alone. His low turnover brand of ball-handling has helped the Rockets dominate the possession battle for two seasons. It would be difficult for the inexperienced Sheppard to replicate that value:

Does he really have a chance to take VanVleet's spot?

Reed Sheppard must flash potential for Rockets

Sheppard does not need to outperform VanVleet in 2025-26. That's unlikely to happen, and it's not necessary.

He does need to approach his impact - unless VanVleet fully returns to form. If last year was a blip amid his prime, Sheppard won't catch him next year. If VanVleet is aging, Sheppard should start catching up to him next year.

The Rockets are generally a team at a crossroads. By acquiring Durant, they opened a title window - but as of now, it's a long window. Outside of Durant, most of this team's key players are young.

If Sheppard doesn't break out next year, that could change. The Rockets could continue down the road of acquiring win-now players at the cost of their young core. If he does, he could replace VanVleet as the starter within the next couple of seasons. In the process of forging his own path, Sheppard will impact VanVleet's short-term future:

The Rockets would love to put him on the bench if Sheppard forces their hand.