Fred VanVleet is the Rocket with the most to prove down the stretch

The Houston Rockets have amassed an impressive group of young talent in the last few years. Somehow, they're still not clear on who their point guard of the future is.

That's not entirely a problem. It somewhat reflects an embarrassment of riches. The Rockets have so much young talent that they could scarcely find room for Reed Sheppard throughout 2024-25. Amen Thompson has had a fantastic season, but whether he's a wing with secondary playmaking chops or a full-time floor general remains to be seen.

There won't be any clarity on that issue for 10 to 14 days at the very least. That's how long Thompson will be injured. Sheppard is out for a month, and realistically, he wasn't going to answer those questions anyway.

At least the Rockets are getting Fred VanVleet back. He's their point guard of the present.

This next stretch of basketball could determine how long that remains the case.

Rockets' Fred VanVleet could decide his fate

It hasn't been a sterling season for VanVleet. His 34.0% shooting from long-range is the worst mark of his career. As a small guard with limited athleticism, a dip on shooting efficiency will lead to a general dip in productivity for VanVleet.

That explains his 1.2 Box Plus/Minus (BPM) in 2024-25. It's the worst mark of his career since VanVleet's third season. It's also indicative of a player who can surely be replaced.

Not that replacing him will necessarily be easy. Per CleaningtheGlass, VanVleet's +3.7 Efficiency Differential trails only Alperen Sengun (+8.0) on the Rockets. By contrast, Thompson's mark of 0.0 suggests that he's a neutral player.

That's not entirely fair. Thompson is a sophomore on a team that's heading for the playoffs. A 0.0 differential is a strong mark. Still, VanVleet runs the offense more smoothly at this juncture in each player's career.

Although...

The Rockets had 129 points with 6 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter when he got injured. He had 15 points and 11 assists. It does feel like, with a full season of reps, Thompson could run a more dynamic offense than VanVleet. His outlier athleticism and ability to pressure the rim make him a potent force when he's given the keys.

Can VanVleet fend him off?

VanVleet's future with the Rockets is unclear

It's unclear what's going to happen with the Rockets. That's true in the most general sense.

If they're going to acquire Kevin Durant this summer, they may prefer to keep VanVleet as a floor general. A strong pivot towards win-now mode could mean another year in a wing role for Thompson. Experimenting with him as a point guard with a 36-year-old superstar on the roster would confuse their direction.

By contrast, if the Rockets don't make a major change, they'll want a succession plan. Taking usage away from VanVleet to give to Thompson (or potentially Sheppard) will be preferable.

How quickly that happens is now up to VanVleet.