From Barkley to KD: the Rockets’ history of big names, bigger bets

The Rockets had arguably the best offseason in the NBA. They traded away an unproven, inconsistent Jalen Green, along with an aging wing-defender in Dillon Brooks, for one of the best scorers in the history of the game. That, in itself, would already be a slam-dunk, but when we consider Houston’s main weakness - the lack of a go-to late-game killer - it looks even better. The problem is, KD is no longer the perennial MVP he once was and, at age 37, their bet on him is much riskier than the headline suggests.

Whilst his first-ballot Hall of Fame aura and 2024-25 averages of 26.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, 4.2 assists while shooting 52.7% from the field and 43.0% from the three-point range will indicate otherwise, make no mistake: Durant’s game is in decline! And decline is where Houston’s past meets its future.

The Barkley Parallel: MVP name, post-peak reality

This isn’t the first time the Rockets have acquired a former MVP player from the Suns. Almost 30 years ago, they traded away 4 players - up-and-coming Sam Cassell and Robert Horry as the headliners - for another all-time great forward: Charles Barkley. While Chuck arrived with the franchise player aura, his twilight in Phoenix suggested otherwise.

Numbers don’t lie, and Sir Charles’ last couple of seasons in the Valley of the Sun showed clear signs of him morphing into a different era in his career. For the first time since his rookie year, he finished outside of the All-NBA 1st or 2nd teams. His last season in Phoenix was only the second time since his sophomore season that he was not voted in the Top 10 of the MVP race.

Durability was also a factor, as Barkley didn’t crack 70 games played twice in his last 3 seasons with the Suns, versus an average of over 76 games in the previous 9 seasons. The advanced numbers also told the same story: a then career low eFG% and worst AST% of the past 7 seasons in his Arizona swansong. Durant arrives with a similar star quality:

Albeit, an aging one.

Analyzing his advanced stats, we clearly see his production on the Suns was his worst since 2009. Modern “All-in-One” stats in a vacuum don’t tell the full story, but when several are pointing in the same direction, we should pay close attention. Whether you’re a traditionalist using PER, a Basketball Reference junkie using BPM and WS/48, a deep in the trenches analytics fan of B-Ball Index’s EPM or Dunks & Threes’ LEBRON, you will find the same answer: KD’s most recent production is subpar - by his standards - and hasn’t been this low since he was a 23 years-old player in his second professional season.

Another crucial number to keep in mind is his total games played - and missed - in recent years. From his first post-Achilles tear full season to now, Durant is a lock to miss around 20 games per year. When we add to that his recurring unhappiness with teams since he left OKC, putting his Over-Under of seasons played for a team at 2.5, and a potentially contentious contract extension negotiation, you get why Houston might have a problem.

A good marriage - or a quick divorce?

As tends to be the key factor in most marriages, let’s start with the finances.

KD is owed $54M this season, the final of his current contract. Whilst he’s eligible for an extension that could pay him an average of $60M over 2 seasons, the Rockets are unlikely to go that high. ESPN’s Tim MacMahon said his extension “is not necessarily their priority” right now. The Texas Insider added that both Kevin and the team will “take a patient approach” and that neither the team nor the player was envisioning a max deal, that negotiation is the key for their title contending window.

The reason Rafael Stone is unlikely to give Durant a max extension is tied to their main priority for the summer: Tari Eason’s extension. While Stone’s tenure as Houston’s GM has shown a great ability to negotiate fair and somewhat team friendly deals, how much of a bargain Eason’s contract ends up being will be a major piece into KD’s negotiations. Thinking of both players as a combo, the ideal scenario for Houston is that both extensions cost the team under a combined $60M in salary for the 26-27 season. That number is crucial as anything above it would likely land the Rockets over the 1st Apron - and all the roster building restrictions that come with it.

Considering Eason should get a deal in the yearly range of $12M to $15M, you can see why the lack of a pre-nup between Durant and the Rockets can sour the relationship. Given KD’s max extension alone would be at the $60 million figure, how much he is willing to sacrifice is as key to a long-term relationship in Houston as is the team’s success.

Winning cures everything

The good news is that the Rockets might just be able to walk that thin line and get the best the legendary wing has to offer. Coach Udoka must make smart load management non-negotiable. Keeping his minutes under 30 per-game, along with a few DNP-Rest games is key. His new defensive star teammates will also help, by taking the toughest defensive assignments, allowing KD to rest more during games on the defensive end.

Back to the Barkley Parallel, the past can give Houston hope. While Sir Charles wasn’t the MVP fans expected he morphed into a ferocious second engine - less usage, same winning utility. In his 3 full seasons with the Rockets, he averaged 17 points, 13 boards and 4 assists per game, with his highest WS/48 since being crowned MVP of the league, he helped lead the team to 57 wins and the Western Conference Finals.

If Durant delivers a Barkley-Year-1 bump, Houston should keep its top-tier defense intact while sparking the offense from last season’s middle tier into clear Top-10 territory. The “main challenger to OKC” script then comes alive: a win total in the high-50s and a real shot at the franchise’s first West finals since 2018 - when the Rockets fell to the Warriors, ironically led by the now-Rocket Kevin Durant.

Yes, KD is exactly the half-court assassin Houston desperately needed, but he is no longer the unstoppable scoring force from OKC, or the Finals MVP who buried dagger threes for Golden State, not even the prolific superstar Brooklyn briefly enjoyed. This KD demands careful calibration: if Udoka keeps the legs fresh, the front office and Durant’s camp keep the extension sane, the Rockets will succeed in nailing the delicate balance to extract the best out of him. That’s the thin line Houston must walk:

If they do, their gamble pays off in a big way.