Full Rockets All-Star break primer: Playoff odds, injury updates, 2nd half outlook, more

What a season it's been for the Houston Rockets.

Sure, the waters have been rough lately. After a prolonged stretch as the NBA Western Conference's second seed, the Rockets have slipped. They now sit at fourth with just a half-game lead over the fifth-seeded Lakers.

If that looks like a poor season to you, you've got unreasonable expectations. This young team missed the play-in tournament last year. The Rockets have had a fantastic year:

How should we expect it to look after the All-Star break?

Playoff Odds

It's looking good on the playoff front.

Per PlayoffStatus.com, the Rockets have a less than 1% chance of outright missing the postseason. Barring an unthinkable catastrophe, it's not going to happen.

Where they'll land is anyone's guess. The odds across seeding are fairly flat. The Rockets have a 25% chance of finishing third, a 24% chance of landing fifth, and a 22% chance of finishing second.

So, it's anybody's guess. Still, any Rockets fan who saw the postseason as an end goal should be satisfied. They're almost certainly going to get what they're looking for.

Strength of Schedule

Luckily, it's going to get easier for the Rockets.

With 27 games left, they've got the 9th-easiest remaining schedule in the league. The hardest days of the 2024-25 NBA season may be behind them.

Side note: the Phoenix Suns have the league's hardest remaining schedule. The Rockets' incoming pick from them is officially on watch. The Cooper Flagg dream is nearly dead, but it's got some breath remaining.

Injury Updates

The Rockets have spent much of 2024-25 beating up opponents, but lately, they've been the ones looking beat up.

Jabari Smith Jr. looks likely to be cleared for contact work during the All-Star break. He may not be back as soon as the season resumes, but it shouldn't be long. Fred VanVleet remains week-to-week, but he could be available after the break.

Rockets fans should air on the side of caution and expect Tari Eason and Steven Adams to have limited availability throughout the year.

Starting Lineup

Until Smith Jr. returns, look for Amen Thompson to start in his place. Aaron Holiday will fill in for VanVleet.

When the Rockets are healthy, this gets interesting. Will they keep the hyperproductive Thompson in the starting group at Smith Jr.'s expense? Could Thompson replace Brooks?

Or, will the Rockets return to the VanVleet / Jalen Green / Brooks / Smith Jr. / Alperen Sengun lineup they've had the most success with this year?

Worst-Case Scenario

The worst-case scenario for the Rockets at this point would involve injuries. When this group is healthy, they're difficult to beat, but without an A1 superstar, any injury threatens this roster's structural integrity.

If the Rockets can't get healthy, they could lose homecourt advantage in the first round. That feels like the worst-case scenario for the rest of this year. The difference between falling to fifth, sixth, or seventh is arguably negligible in a loaded Western Conference. The first round is going to be difficult for these young Rockets no matter who their first-round opponent is

Best-Case Scenario

The Rockets win every remaining regular season game, the NBA championship, and trade nothing but a first-round pick for Kevin Durant in the summer.

Jokes aside, the best-case scenario at this point probably has Houston finishing with the second seed. They've got less than a 1% chance of usurping the Thunder at the top spot - it isn't going to happen.

Even catching up to the second-seeded Grizzlies will be difficult. They've got a solid 2.5-game lead over the Rockets.

Come playoff time, the best-case scenario for this group is to win a playoff series. Nobody should view that as a necessity to call this season a success - even a competitive first-round exit would be fine - but in terms of a best case, a Conference Finals trip veers towards unrealistic.

Award Watch

Ime Udoka should certainly be in the mix for Coach of the Year. The Rockets will need to approach that best-case scenario for him to win the award, but barring the worst-case, he should at least get some votes.

Amen Thompson deserves a place on an All-Defense team. Could Alperen Sengun crack the All-NBA Third Team? It's a stretch, but a strong performance after the All-Star break could invite the possibility.

Second-Half Prediction

Look for the Rockets to go 16-11 over their remaining 27 games. That accounts for a pair of games against the Thunder, as well as some wins and some losses in close calls against the Lakers, Nuggets, and Clippers.

Perhaps that's guarded pessimism. Still, that would make for a 50-win season for the Rockets. That's a triumph. It should be enough for them to secure homecourt advantage in the playoffs.

After that, who knows what might happen?