The Houston Rockets are right to pass on De'Aaron Fox

The Houston Rockets have surpassed expectations in 2024-25.

Fine - that's an understatement. The Rockets are running laps around their preseason projections. They're one of the best teams in the NBA, and nobody saw that coming.

With that success comes scrutiny. Last year, nobody cared about the Rockets' short-term decisions. Now, everyone's got a diagnosis. Some suggest they should trade for a star, while others would have them stay the course.

It seems they're leaning in the latter direction. De'Aaron Fox trade talks are intensifying. Marc Stein says the Rockets aren't interested.

Good.

Rockets don't need Fox

Loyal SpaceCityScoop readers are confused.

Yes, I was vocally advocating for Fox not long ago. Life happens fast in the National Basketball Association. By now, it's clear that the best path (for at least the remainder of the season) involves keeping this group together.

If the Rockets acquire Fox, they'll have to replace somebody. Since they're both point guards, most people's first instinct would be to hand him Fred VanVleet's job.

There are a couple of issues with that.

Firstly, Fox is shooting 32.4% from three-point range. That's not far off his career mark of 33.3%. VanVleet is shooting 34.7% - far off his 37.3% career average, and still better than Fox.

Sure, Fox is a prolific midrange shooter. That matters if Houston is looking for a lead guard. Recently, VanVleet has been playing a more supporting role, with Jalen Green earning some on-ball reps. We'll circle back to that, but for now, it's worth noting that VanVleet is a more portable player, which makes him better suited to help Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, and Green expand their games.

If the Rockets outgrow him, he's got a team option on his contract this summer. They can negotiate a new, team-friendly deal, or simply let his money come off the books. This is perhaps the best argument against trading for Fox. After next season, he's going to want a massive long-term deal.

Zach LaVine. Brandon Ingram. The NBA's new market is not kind to really good players earning superstar money. With a Box Plus/Minus of 1.3, Fox is unlikely to make good on whatever he earns next. That's fine for some teams, but for a Rockets team that will be looking to navigate deals for several young players, it's an issue.

So, replacing VanVleet with Fox creates too many complications.

Who else could the Rockets sub him in for?

Rockets should stay committed to Green

Yes, Jalen Green is the obvious answer,

His poor play was the reason I'd wanted Fox so badly. It's the primary variable that's changed since then. In January, Green is averaging 25.7 points per game while shooting 47.4% from the field and 42.1% from long-range.

Is Green poised for superstardom? It's hard to say. He remains inconsistent. He's got All-Star talent, but it's unclear if he'll ever make an All-NBA team, something Fox has accomplished.

Does that make Fox worth the extra $10 million or so per year he'll be making once both players are on long-term deals? Not nearly. It would be more sensible for the Rockets to stick with Green. He's a better shooter than Fox, he's significantly younger, and he has pre-existing chemistry with his teammates. It's not worth taking on the extra salary and surrendering draft capital for a player who, in 2-3 seasons, may not even be the better player according to consensus.

VanVleet is cheaper long term and more portable. Green is younger, also cheaper, and more portable, and could be as good or better than Fox soon. So, neither of the Rockets' current starting guards feels like someone to replace with Fox.

Any other arguments for acquiring him?

Rockets shouldn't focus on Spurs

I've seen one floating around.

It seems that Fox is looking to land in San Antonio. It's been suggested that the Rockets should grab Fox so that the Spurs can't have him.

To reiterate: this is a player with a 1.3 BPM. Fox is not a game-breaking superstar. OK, advanced metrics aren't everything. Fox is a short(ish) guard who can't shoot threes and needs the ball to be effective. Realistically, that's why he has a 1.3 BPM.

He's good! He isn't so incredibly impactful that it would be a disaster for the Spurs to land him. If anything, Houston should let them spend their assets on Fox so that they aren't in a position to land someone better.

LaMelo Ball may want a trade someday. Trae Young is arguably a superior player, and who knows if Atlanta will keep him. More broadly, the point is this:

If the Spurs want a lead guard, and the Rockets steal Fox from them, they'll get another lead guard - one who's probably as good as Fox, if not better.

The Rockets can't worry about that. If they fall behind the Spurs because the Spurs landed Fox, they'll have the assets to go get the next time - and the Spurs won't. For now, things are going so well for the Rockets that it's not worth rocking the boat for a player of Fox's caliber.

They should keep destroying expectations with the guys they have.