Identifying the best star trade target for the Houston Rockets

The Houston Rockets will probably trade for a star eventually.

Fans don't want to hear it. They've already got their core. To be sure, the Rockets have done an outstanding job of collecting dynamic young players.

Perhaps they've done too well. The Rockets have to consolidate eventually. There is no such thing as a "core seven." None of these guys will be content to be the best seventh man in the NBA, and the Rockets won't look to pay seven good players. They'll look to flip three or four of those guys for a great one. In all likelihood, it will happen this summer.

Who should that player be? To answer that question, I'll use the process of elimination. Let's look at the players who ought to be on the Rockets' radar, and try to conclude which would be the best target for the organization.

The Darkhorse Candidates

De'Aaron Fox

It's hard to find direct rumors linking Fox to the Rockets, but you will find some folks who connect the dots.

Fox is a Houstonian. He hasn't signed an extension with the Kings. If he's not satisfied with Sacramento's performance in the postseason this year, it wouldn't be surprising to see him on the trade block.

The Rockets will be linked to virtually any star who's available. They have the assets and the motivation to make a blockbuster move. They'll be as sensible a candidate for Fox's services as any team in the league.

Jimmy Butler

As a rule, the Heat don't rebuild. This feels like a case of deja vu. The Heat are 6-7, veteran-heavy, and light on assets.

In other words, they'll probably make the NBA Finals this year.

Jokes aside, the Heat could operate outside of their usual parameters and shop Butler before long. It feels likely that if they're going to move him, it will happen before this year's deadline. The Rockets aren't expected to make a blockbuster deal this year, but if Butler is still hanging around South Beach by the summertime, he could find himself making a move to Space City.

Kevin Durant

Spoiler alert: There will be another Sun on this list. No, it isn't Josh Okogie, either.

Booker feels like a more natural acquisition than Durant due to his age. Surrendering considerable assets to bring a 36-year-old into a room full of players in their early 20s doesn't feel sensible.

Here's hoping the Rockets' front office feels the same way. For now, Durant is heavily linked to the team, so he counts as a target.

Joel Embiid

There doesn't seem to be a lot of Brotherly Love in Philadelphia at the moment.

Reports suggest that Embiid is alienating himself from his teammates. He's habitually late, and the Sixers are growing tired of his limited availability. Embiid's flaws may finally be catching up to him in Philadelphia

Would the Rockets be willing to accommodate them?

Lauri Markkanen

Jabari Smith Jr. has largely failed expectations in 2024-25. Tari Eason has far exceeded expectations, but there's an argument to be made that he's best served anchoring the second unit.

Shifting a new starting 4 into the lineup is a good solution to that problem. Markkanen isn't eligible to be moved until the offseason, but he's someone Rockets fans should keep an eye on.

That said, there are two targets they should watch even more closely.

Giannis Antetokounmpo

The case for acquiring Antetokounmpo is simple. I've made it before, and here, I'll make it again.

Antetokounmpo is one of the best players in the NBA. Nikola Jokic is better. That's the only player you can definitively say that about.

Any NBA rebuild aims to acquire a player of this caliber. The Rockets can justify acquiring Antetokounmpo because almost every team in the NBA could justify doing the same. The Utah Jazz are one of the worst teams in the league, but if they paired Antetokounmpo with Markannen, they'd be a couple of solid role players away from title contention.

Arguing against Antetokounmpo requires more words - and they're coming. In the meantime, if the Rockets want to go get one of the very best players in the world, they shouldn't face too much resistance from the fanbase.

Devin Booker

As with Fox, it requires some abstractions to link Booker to the Rockets. Although, it's an easier connection to make.

The Rockets own a considerable share of the Suns' draft picks. If the Suns fall short in the 2024-25 playoffs, they could quickly collapse. The Rockets could center an offer for Booker around some young players and those picks.

It could be the best decision the team ever made.

Giannis is good, Booker is best

Let's start by quickly knocking off the dark horse candidates.

Fox is a questionable fit alongside Sengun. The Kings have paired him with the similar Domantas Sabonis for years. Why would the Rockets replicate a model that's proven itself to be limited?

Sure, it's not an apples-to-apples comparison. Still, it's too functionally similar to bother emulating. An ideal co-star for Sengun would be a player with more three-point gravity than Fox. That would stretch the defense out and put them in the type of bind that wins games at a high level.

There's some temptation to pair Fox with Jalen Green in the backcourt. They could overwhelm opponents with sheer speed. That said, the combined shooting between the duo is too poor to consider - especially if the Rockets intend on starting Amen Thompson on a long-term basis.

Durant and Butler are too old. That's it. Neither is going to vault the Rockets to title contention, so forfeiting assets to bring them in would only moderately increase their short-term ceiling while considerably reducing their long-term title hopes.

As for Embiid - his petulance and durability seem to be rubbing the Sixers the wrong way. It's also worth noting that Embiid has never made it out of the second round of the playoffs. It seems that his injuries wear on him as the season progresses. It wouldn't be wise for the Rockets to inherit these problems from the Sixers. Let Darryl Morey deal with Embiid - it's who he left the Rockets for, right?

Markkanen isn't good enough. He's very good! There's simply no current Rocket who you can pair with Markkanen to build a title team. The Rockets would have a pair of high-end second options by pairing him with Sengun. That's too low of a ceiling to mortgage the future for.

So, that leaves Antetokounmpo and Booker. This boils the Rockets' question down to one that has plagued draft analysts for a long time: do you take the best player available, or opt for team fit?

Conventional wisdom always dictates taking the best available player. If that's the case, the Rockets have to go for Antetokounmpo. He's a top-4 player at worst, and Booker is a top-15 player at best.

Yet, conventions are always changing in the NBA. Antetokounmpo is a better player than Booker, but we shouldn't assume that he'd be a better player for the Rockets.

Let's start with a basic premise - by adding Antetokounmpo, the Rockets would be adding one of the worst shooting stars in the NBA to one of the worst shooting teams in the NBA. Fundamentally, he's a bad fit with almost every member of the current roster. He's a particularly bad fit alongside Sengun - they both flourish in the paint.

Theoretically, Antetokounmpo could be a better fit with Green. This points to the same issue that the Rockets run into in pairing any player with Green - his impact is strictly theoretical. In practice, Green is having another disappointing season in year 4. There's no logical reason to take a leap of faith and assume that he'll be sufficient to support Antetokounmpo in a title run.

It was the late, great J Dilla who once said "You've got one? That's cool. Nowadays everybody's got two". If the Rockets don't have a ready-made co-star for Antetokounmpo, acquiring him comes with considerable risk.

If you're bold enough, you're not moved by these concerns. You'd acquire Antetokounmpo, and flip whatever was leftover for his co-star. The Rockets could get crazy this summer. It's possible that they'd have enough to land Antetokounmpo and Durant, and even sign James Harden when all was said and done.

Quick: name the last team to successfully gut their core and win a title. OK, it was the 2019-20 Los Angeles Lakers. Otherwise, most of the recent title runs have been made by teams who mostly kept a core together and let them develop. Although, most of those teams also rostered an MVP-caliber player.

That puts the Rockets in a bind - they didn't draft an MVP-caliber player. That's the quickest route to a title. Now that it hasn't happened - if you don't want to work with that assumption that's fine, but I will - they have a choice. They can either trade for an MVP-caliber player or bank on continuity and chemistry to get them to the top.

It's not clear which path is preferable. Look at last year's champions. Jayson Tatum is a fringe top-10 player. Is he so much better than Booker? Didn't the Celtics win by committing to a team philosophy and building one of the deepest rosters in NBA history?

Hence, I land on Booker. Plug him into Green's spot, and this team could ascend to new heights. The Rockets can likely keep both Thompson and Tari Eason in a Booker deal. Owning their future picks affords them that luxury. An offer built around Green, Smith Jr., Cam Whitmore, all of Phoenix's picks back, and maybe a pick or two of their own ought to suffice for the Suns.

Alperen Sengun. Devin Booker. The Terror Twins. Nobody can confidently tell you that it's enough to win a title, but it does offer the Rockets an extended championship window. Adding Antetokounmpo to (what's left of) the current roster does not do that. Adding Antetokounmpo and another star guts the roster, empties the war chest of draft picks, and still doesn't guarantee a championship.

Some caveats apply here. Firstly, and for anyone who's been following my personal line of thinking - I still want Antetokounmpo. The Rockets can justify acquiring him easily. Acquiring an MVP candidate justifies itself. The argument here is only that Booker is the better target.

Secondly, nobody knows if Booker will ever be available. Nobody even knows if Antetokounmpo will ever be available - although, it's feeling increasingly likely. Anthony Edwards or LaMelo Ball may request a trade in time. It's even possible that one of these Rockets will in fact develop into an MVP candidate.

If they do, the Rockets won't have to trade for a star at all.