Jabari Smith Jr. can still become the star the Rockets envisioned

With the third pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, the Houston Rockets selected Jabari Smith Jr. Any time a team invests such a high draft pick in a player, there are huge expectations. It is fair to say Smith has not yet become the star many hoped he would be when Houston selected him third overall.

That is not to say he has not been good. Smith just finished his fourth season averaging 15.8 points, 6.9 rebounds and 1.9 assists while playing quality defense. Those are not All-Star numbers, but they are quality top-tier role player numbers. Still, Smith just turned 23 years old. Can he still make a star leap?

Smith came into the NBA as one of the youngest players in the league. His rookie season showed his age. He put up an inefficient 12.8 points per game while the Rockets won just 22 games. However, he has improved tremendously since his rookie year.

What is holding Jabari Smith Jr. back?

The two biggest things holding Smith back from meeting his lofty expectations are his limited self-creation and inconsistent outside shooting. Coming out of the draft, one of his common pro comparisons was his current teammate, Kevin Durant.

Durant is a near seven-footer who creates his own offense from the perimeter like a guard and is one of the best shooters in NBA history. Watching Smith play, it is easy to see why people compared him to Durant before he played in the NBA.

That being said, reaching that level was always going to be unlikely. Up until this point in his NBA career, he has shown an extremely limited ability to create for himself consistently, and his shooting has been much closer to average than elite.

The Rockets should not give up on Smith’s upside yet

Usually, after four seasons in the league, a player’s deficiencies are seen as permanent. But Smith is still so young. Some of the incoming rookies in this year’s draft class will be older than him. 

Smith may never become the Durant-like scorer some imagined, but at 23 years old, it is too early for the Rockets to completely close the book on the upside they envisioned when they first drafted him.

If Smith Jr. tightens his handle and becomes a more reliable three-point shooter, then nothing is holding him back from being exactly what the Amen Thompson-Alperen Sengun young core needs to push to the next level.

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