Jabari Smith Jr. could create headache for Rockets that Warriors fans already face

The Houston Rockets may have to consolidate eventually.

Fans don't want to hear it. They're typically attached to at least 5 of the "core 7", and sometimes, they'll refuse to let any of them go.

A core 7 is not tenable. The Rockets won't find roles for everyone, and they won't be able to pay them. In time, it will be necessary to turn 3 or 4 of those guys into one superstar player. This was always an inevitable part of the process. The Rockets aggregated an excess of young talent in order to eventually consolidate it.

Most of these guys can make a claim to big money on their next deal (with perhaps the exception of Cam Whitmore). Tari Eason has far exceeded expectations based on his draft position.

Typically, lottery players get paid handsomely. Teams aren't strictly paying for their production - they're paying for baked in potential. Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson and Jabari Smith Jr. will all have dollar signs in their eyes.

For Smith Jr., negotiations start this summer. Overpaying him could be a costly mistake

Rockets' Jabari Smith Jr. needs to earn next contract

The Ringer's Wosny Lambre thinks Smith Jr. will have lofty expectations.

"He’s a Kuminga type who thinks he should be making 30-35m a year"

-Wosny Lambre of The Ringer

That comparison should be a red flag for Rockets fans. Kuminga has been a headache for the Warriors. They'll have to either extend him this summer or let him walk. The Rockets are a year away from facing the same bleak range of outcomes.

Perhaps they'll want to see what he does next year. The Rockets don't have to rush into a decision this summer. Still, if Smith Jr. doesn't improve, they'll only be delaying the inevitable by letting negotiations drag out for another year.

Sure, Smith Jr. has potential. If we're looking at what he's accomplished so far, he's not worth the type of contract Lambre is talking about. In theory, Smith Jr. is supposed to be a jumbo-sized 3-and-D wing who can play all 3 frontcourt positions.

In practice, he's shooting 33.6% from deep for his career. Even if we filter out a rough rookie campaign, he's at a pedestrian 35.3%. If spacing the floor is meant to be his primary offensive skill, he hasn't earned a lucrative deal.

Defensively, it's been a mixed bag. This year, Smith Jr.'s Defensive Box/Plus Minus (DBPM) of 0.0 doesn't bely his full value. When he got injured, the team's defense cratered. Smith Jr.'s versatility on that end of the floor helps cover up for Alperen Sengun's shortcomings.

Sure. Smith Jr. is a fine defender, but he isn't world-beating. The Rockets could likely find someone who can protect the rim from the weakside as effectively without paying them $30 million a year.

With so much young talent on the roster, that's a decision they can't afford to make.