Jabari Smith Jr. extension will only look better for the Rockets

The Houston Rockets secured Jabari Smith Jr.'s extension this summer. Luckily, it's not a deal that will hurt them in the long term.

For some fans, Smith Jr. has been somewhat disappointing. He's had a solid start to his NBA career, but the third overall pick comes with expectations. Solid isn't good enough - fans expect greatness.

Perhaps that's an unfair expectation. A quick glance at the historuy of third overall picks will tell you that players selected there have no guarantees of stardom. As long as Smith Jr. is a servicable NBA starter, he'll meet any reasonable expectations.

That said, draft pedigree isn't the only metric we measure players by. Their production relative to their contract matters too. Luckily, Smith Jr. is likely to mee the bar by that measure:

Just ask The Game Theory Podcast's Sam Vecenie.

Rockets got steal of a deal in Smith Jr. extension

"That deal is going to be looked at as fairly cheap at some point. You look at the extension number, he's going to be making 12 percent of the salary cap in 2027-28...it gets up to 13% in 2030-31. They structured the deal in a fascinating way"

- Sam Vecenie on Jabari Smith Jr.

This is the lens to view NBA deals through in 2025. Dollar amounts will give casual fans sticker shock, but it's the cap percentage that matters.

As it stands, Smith Jr. is a Swiss-army knife. He's 6'11", can guard (to an extent) from any spot on the floor, and is a credible floor spacer. One could argue that this deal is a slight overpay at his current level, but it's not egregious.

Moreover, Smith Jr. is just 22. It's logical to assume he'll improve. He has the opportunity to make this look like one of the best deals in the NBA:

How can he make that happen?

Rockets would love improvement from Jabari Smith Jr.

If Smith Jr. could create his own offense, that would be a start. At his height and with his shooting ability, he doesn't need to develop into a maestro ball-handler. If he could simply get to his spot with a dribble or two, he'd change his game.

That said, the Rockets may not overhaul their offense to feature Smith Jr. in the midrange. More consistent three-point shooting is another potential avenue towards improvement. If Smith Jr. could start approaching 40% shooting from long range, he'll make this deal age beautifully.

The broader point is that at 22, Smith Jr. is overwhelmingly likely to improve. Given that he's already nearly justifying this contract amount, that'll mean turning the deal into a discount.

Some Rockets fans still aren't over missing out on Paolo Banchero in the 2022 draft. It's hard to argue that it's better to have the inferior player, but it could be a blessing in disguise. Smith Jr.'s more gradual developmental arc could mean the Rockets have one of the league's best contracts on the books before long:

Fans won't be disappointed then.