Kevin Durant's struggles could be a dire sign of what is to come for the Rockets

Holding a 11-4 record through 15 games, it's fair to say the Houston Rockets have had a good start to the season. The offense is far improved from last season with there being an abundance of assets and observable growth from several players (namely Reed Sheppard and Alperen Sengun). However, the Rockets' main acquisition over the offseason has been rather disappointing.

Currently, Kevin Durant is averaging 24.6 ppg on 48.5% from the field and 36.4% from 3-point range. This level of scoring has undoubtedly been a valuable asset for the Rockets. The utility of Durant as a closer was especially highlighted in the clutch against the Magic when he nailed a game tying three and then a dagger to seal the game.

The problem resides in Durant's inconsistency and overall decline. His current 24.6 points per game is the lowest he's averaged since his rookie season. Furthermore, his 3-point shooting has seen a sharp decline from last season, going from 43.0% to 36.4%. His struggles vs double teams have also been a point of exploit for opposing defenses (such as the Spurs), as he has been slow in passing out of them or even finding the open man.

Durant has been mostly subpar in the Rockets' most challenging matchups

With the season being 82 games, it's obvious that Durant won't be at his best every game. But his overall poor play against the Rockets' best opponents thus far is a cause for concern.

The Rockets have had a schedule where they face one or two truly formidable opponents and then a barrage of bottom-tier to mid-pack teams. Against the latter, they have excelled, accumulating several winning streaks, but against the former they have faltered, partially cause of Durant. Their four losses have been to the Thunder, Pistons, Spurs, and Nuggets with Durant being far from his best in three of these games.

In a nail-biter season opener against the Oklahoma City Thunder, Durant was notably AWOL in the second half, not attempting many shots in the clutch and missing a key free throw which may have sealed the game. And who can forget him trying to call a timeout when the Rockets didn't have one.

He was fortunately able to turn it around against the Pistons the next game, posting 37 points on 9-of-18 shooting. However, Durant was a large reason for the losses against the Spurs and Nuggets, having 8 turnovers and 13 points on 5-of-15 shooting respectively.

The game against the Nuggets was particularly troubling as KD was missing shot after shot in the clutch. Had he played even marginally better, the Rockets would likely have won.

The way the Rockets, even without Fred VanVleet, have been able to hang with the two consensus contenders in the Nuggets and Thunder is extremely encouraging. But with the inexperience of the Rockets' promising young core, it is extremely important that KD delivers in these big moments. And so far, he just hasn't.

Durant's struggles could mean trouble for the Rockets in the playoffs

The magnitude at which Durant has looked out of rhythm could spell doom for the Rockets in the playoffs. In several recent postseasons, such as in 2022 and 2023, defenses have been able to contain Durant's powers in ways that would've previously been unimaginable. When considering the context, however, these instances were understandable as the Suns and Nets both had notably poor roster construction aside from their star players.

The Rockets, on the other hand, have more than enough depth and several offensive weapons that could draw at least some attention off of Durant. And to be competitive in the playoffs, they'll need Durant to capitalize and be their unequivocal leader.

With the sample size being as small as it is, nobody should be writing off Durant. He's regarded as one of the best basketball players ever for good reason and is easily capable of turning it around.

But in the nightmare scenario that he doesn't, the Rockets' offseason could start unexpectedly early.